SIR, deployment of central forces and reduction in fear were the important reasons behind BJP’s possible lead in West Bengal elections 2026. Amidst the memory of the violence of 2021, this time safe voting changed voter behavior and influenced the election results.
Although elections were held in five states and union territories, the eyes of the country – nay, the world – were fixed on West Bengal. Some were hopeful, some worried, but everyone was watching. There was a possibility of BJP’s victory, not a wave. This surprised everyone.
So what changed?
To understand this we will have to go to 2021. The 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections weren’t just tense—they were violent. Nearly 300 violent incidents, 58 deaths in the election period, and more than half of the total election-related deaths in the country at that time occurred in Bengal.
And then the violence that follows
Political workers were targeted. Houses were attacked, people were forced to flee. This memory does not disappear, it persists and shapes behavior. Because for years Bengal has operated on a simple, rigid framework:
- Vote, but only for us.
- If you go out and vote for someone else, we’ll know.
- If you don’t vote for us, we will find you.
Now put yourself in the place of the voter. Even if you don’t like the party in power – will you take the risk? Or will you vote ‘safe’? This is where democracy weakens – not by changing laws, but by changing behavior. There were other methods too – local pressure, influence on polling officials. Even interference at the booths – so that the opposition symbols are not clearly visible. If the symbol is not visible, how will one vote?
Then comes a deeper structural question
A senior IPS officer said – More than 70% of the complaints are not registered. There are hardly 15 policemen in a normal police station. Many times the same number of policemen are at the residences of senior officers. But with these? 300-400 ‘civil volunteers’ – paid by the state, politically connected, established for years.
Just do the math. One police station has 15 policemen, and on the other hand, hundreds of people, who are working as a part of the same system.
Who actually runs the system?
In such a situation, impartiality is not only difficult – it becomes almost ineffective.
And then came SIR
Special Intensive Revision of Voter Lists became a big issue. On the face of it, it was a technical process—cleaning the list, removing duplication, removing fake names. But the sharp opposition it received made many things clear.
Because if a part of your political power rests on an inflated or flawed voter list, cleaning it up isn’t just an administrative step—it becomes a question of survival.
SIR did two things simultaneously
- He indicated that the system was getting tightened.
- And it created a fear that the old ways would no longer work the same way.
The mere perception that fake or repeat voters may turn out is enough to change behavior on the ground.
So what changed this time – apart from SIR?
The biggest reason: Strong election management. The leadership of the Election Commission, especially under the Chief Election Commissioner, saw widespread deployment of central forces and tight control over sensitive areas. This is not the first time – India has seen this before too. T.N. Seshan had laid its foundation decades ago – demanding adequate force, not succumbing to political pressure, and prioritizing voter confidence over convenience. This time also the same approach was seen.
What was the result of this?
- More voting in sensitive areas
- Less pressure seen during voting
- And most importantly – confidence that the vote is secret and secure.
When fear subsides even a little, the voting pattern changes.
58 deaths in 2021 – zero this time
This is not a normal change in Bengal. This is a structural change. More than 2 lakh central forces were deployed, and importantly, a large number of forces were retained even after the voting. This is most important. Because in Bengal the fear is not only of the voting day – it is also of the day after that.
This uncertainty was also reflected in a statement by Mamata Banerjee – ‘If TMC wins, we will meet again.’ This did not seem like an aggressive declaration, but rather an admission that the outcome might not be entirely under their control. This is where we understand that the land is changing.
Add to this BJP’s ground preparations
This was not just publicity – it was booth level planning. For months, workers and leaders roamed across the state repeating the same thing – no one can know who you voted for.
It sounds simple, but it is not. Re-establishing this trust in a fear-driven environment is half the battle. The memory of 2021 was such that very few people wanted to take the risk of openly voting against the ruling party. It was necessary to break that mental barrier.
This time, to some extent, she broke
Another important step- retention of central forces even after voting. In a state with a history of violence following the outcome, it is not the process, it is security. Democracy is not limited to just pressing buttons. Even after that you should be protected.
Now the real test begins for BJP also
Bengal was once a leading state – economically, culturally and intellectually. If the BJP considers this as more than just a political victory, it will have to bring that energy back. Bengal is not to be conquered – it is to be rebuilt. And just one wave will not be enough for this.