SpaceX Stock Could Nearly Double — Analyst Says Nvidia Rubin Chips Could Fuel One-Year Payback

• Oppenheimer cited SpaceX’s vertically integrated AI platform, combining proprietary data, capital, and Nvidia GPUs.
• SpaceX’s first Starmind AI1 satellite will pair 72 Rubin GPUs with 36 Vera CPUs.
• Deepwater estimated that SpaceX already contributes nearly $5 billion, or 5%, of Nvidia’s quarterly revenue. SpaceX expects to exceed 2 GW of compute by year-end 2026 and approach 10 GW by year-end 2027.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) could nearly double as its Nvidia-powered AI expansion opens up a larger revenue opportunity, Oppenheimer says.

SPCX stock fell 1% on Wednesday to $140.71, logging its second consecutive session in the red. 

Oppenheimer Sees 99% SpaceX Upside 

Oppenheimer raised its SpaceX price target to $280 from $250, implying a 99% upside from current levels, and maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm identified SpaceX’s vertically integrated AI platform as a key differentiator. According to a report on Investing.com, the research firm said that the company owns valuable data, has access to substantial capital and Nvidia GPUs, and can build infrastructure rapidly.

Oppenheimer said new Nvidia Rubin chips could pay for themselves in one year amid strong AI compute demand and pricing. SpaceX could retain 100% of the revenue generated through Cursor and Grok or capture around 50% when acting as an AI infrastructure wholesaler, the firm said.

The Cursor acquisition has also strengthened SpaceX’s agentic coding data and reasoning capabilities, benefiting Grok Bot and Grok 4.6, with further improvements expected in Grok 5.0.

Oppenheimer said AI usage and productivity are running ahead of expectations, although infrastructure remains the biggest bottleneck. The firm raised its long-term revenue estimates by about 10% on stronger compute pricing, compounding to 20% over time when combined with higher capex.

Nvidia Powers SpaceX’s Orbital AI Push

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia recently detailed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system, targeting initial launches in the fourth quarter of 2027 and significant scaling in 2028. SpaceX’s first-gen Starmind AI1 satellite is designed around an orbital configuration of 72 Rubin GPUs and 36 Vera CPUs. 

SpaceX also adopted standalone Vera CPUs for Grok’s agentic workloads on Earth, making Nvidia’s architecture the backbone of both its terrestrial Colossus-scale builds and orbital computing network.

Deepwater’s Gene Munster estimated that SpaceX already contributes nearly $5 billion, or 5%, of Nvidia’s quarterly revenue, up from 3%. He said Nvidia may increasingly view SpaceX as a hyperscaler peer given its massive compute plans. Nvidia has also disclosed an ownership stake in SpaceX.

SpaceX Unveils Massive AI Compute Expansion

SpaceX revealed the scale of its AI ambitions during its first public earnings call last month. The company expects to exceed 2 GW of computing capacity by the end of 2026 and move closer to 10 GW than 5 GW by the end of 2027. Its broader power-and-cooling pipeline totals 20 GW.

Musk said SpaceX has committed to using Nvidia GPUs exclusively “because they are the best.” He also expects the company to receive a significant percentage of Nvidia’s GPU production next year. Melius Research estimated that even 2 GW of SpaceX’s planned buildout could generate $100 billion in incremental revenue for Nvidia. Meanwhile, the capital required for SpaceX’s 2027 expansion has been estimated at between $300 billion and $500 billion.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SpaceX has been ‘bearish’ over the past week amid a 16% decline in 24-hour message volumes.

One bullish user said, “$SPCX Oppenheimer target is ridiculous”

Another user noted, “$SPCX increased price targets and new contracts everyday, and this thing can barely clear the ipo price”

SPCX stock has declined 13% over the past three months. 

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