OCUL Stock On Track For Worst Week In 2.5 Years As Rivals Raise The Bar In Wet AMD

• OCUL stock closed down 22% on Monday and continued to drop on Wednesday and Thursday. 
• The current popular treatment for Wet AMD is Regeneron’s Eylea. 
• Ocular still plans to file for approval of AXPAXLI in the fourth quarter of 2026. 

Shares of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL) fell 5% on Thursday and are on track for their worst week since April 2024, after two rivals posted positive updates in the crowded market for longer-lasting eye injections.

The stock closed down 21% on Monday and continued to drop on Wednesday and Thursday after a brief 3% recovery on Tuesday, as competitors posted positive clinical updates that weighed on optimism around Ocular’s lead drug, AXPAXLI, aimed at treating Wet age-related macular degeneration.  

KOD, FDMT Raise The Durability Bar

Wet AMD is a form of vision loss driven by leaky blood vessels under the retina. The standard drug, Regeneron’s Eylea, works, but patients need repeated injections into the eye. The race is on to see how long a dose can last.

Kodiak Sciences said earlier this week that its late-stage DAYBREAK study met its main goals. Two experimental drugs, Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted, matched Eylea on vision after one year in patients who had not been treated before. Researchers measured vision as the change in how many letters a patient could read. Kodiak also said 54% of Zenkuda patients were on a six-month schedule at one year, under strict rules that called for a new shot if any fluid showed up on a scan. The company reported no cases of inflammation inside the eye with Zenkuda and a cataract rate of 0.5%, versus 0.9% with Eylea. It plans to file Zenkuda with the FDA in the fourth quarter. Kodiak shares more than doubled on the update on Monday and are up 160% so far this week.

4D Molecular Therapeutics, meanwhile, said the first patients had entered 4SIGHT, a late-stage trial of its one-time gene therapy, 4D-150, in diabetic macular edema, a related disease. Updated two-year data from an earlier study showed lasting gains in vision and retinal swelling, and fewer extra shots than standard Eylea dosing, the company said. 4D-150 is already in late-stage testing for wet AMD.

Ocular’s Own Path Is Unchanged

Ocular’s lead drug, AXPAXLI, is a dissolving implant that slowly releases axitinib inside the eye, aiming for months of control from a single shot. A late-stage study met its main goal in February, and a mid-September meeting with the FDA was described as positive. The company still plans to file in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a possible launch in 2027.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Lisa Walter called Monday’s drop overdone, arguing the valuation does not reflect a drug that could reach about $1 billion in sales a few years after launch, and said Ocular still has the best-positioned long-acting treatment, according to a report from Investing.com.

How Did OCUL Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around OCUL stock stayed in ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume remained ‘extremely high.’

A Stocktwits user said that the company must be valued at about $6 billion. OCUL is currently valued at about $1.6 billion

Another user opined that the selloff might increase the chances of a buyout, given the company is a “steal” at its current valuation compared with Kodiak’s market valuation of $6.19 billion.

OCUL stock has dropped 40% year-to-date. 

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