This year’s NFL draft may not see a flurry of quarterbacks selected in the first round, unlike previous years such as 2021 and 2024.Fernando Mendoza is anticipated to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders, but a significant gap is expected before the next quarterback, Ty Simpson, is chosen.
Quarterback Selection Trends
Oddsmakers indicate that Ty Simpson is a slight favorite to be selected in the first round, with his projected draft spot set at 24.5. Should he drop further, the draft may feature only one quarterback taken in the first round.
In the last 24 years, only two drafts featured just one first-round quarterback: Kenny Pickett in 2022 and EJ Manuel in 2013.
Historically, an average of 3.3 quarterbacks have been chosen in the first round over the past 12 drafts, with notable peaks of six in 2024 and five in both 2021 and 2018. One prominent player, Oregon’s Dante Moore, opted to remain in college this year, potentially impacting draft dynamics.
Historical Context of Quarterback Drafts
Since 2000, there have been four drafts with only one first-round quarterback, often resulting in later selections becoming more successful. Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in 2022, followed Pickett, while Geno Smith was taken in Round 2 in 2013 after Manuel.
Notably, Hall of Famers Drew Brees and Tom Brady were also drafted after a single first-round quarterback, showcasing the unpredictability of quarterback talent evaluations.
Raiders’ Draft History
If the Raiders select Mendoza, it will mark their first quarterback pick in Round 1 since 2007 when they selected JaMarcus Russell, who is widely considered one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history.
Only three teams have a longer gap without selecting a quarterback in the first round: Seattle, Dallas, and New Orleans.
Draft Trades and Team Dynamics
In a significant shift, Cincinnati traded the 10th pick to the New York Giants for Dexter Lawrence, indicating a dynamic draft environment.
Historically, there have been only five instances where at least six teams made multiple first-round picks in a single draft, with the record set in 2022.
Other teams with multiple first-round picks this year include the New York Jets, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, and Dallas, while Cincinnati, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Denver will not have a first-round pick.
Potential Top Picks from Ohio State
Ohio State players, including Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, and Carnell Tate, are positioned to dominate the early draft selections, with the possibility of four players being chosen in the top 10.
The last occurrence of a school having four top-10 picks was in 1967 with Michigan State, highlighting the significance of Ohio State’s current prospects.
Jeremiyah Love’s Historic Opportunity
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love could end a seven-year drought of running backs being selected in the top five of the draft, with his draft spot over/under set at 4.5.
This would mark the first time since 2018 that a running back is taken in the top five, reflecting the evolving dynamics of the NFL draft.
Additionally, Love’s teammate, Jadarian Price, has the potential to be the second running back drafted, which would be unprecedented if both were selected from the same college.