The IMF has warned of global recession and inflation due to the Middle East conflict. Due to disruption in the supply of oil, gas and fertilizers, energy and food prices may increase, which will deepen the economic crisis across the world.
Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could lead to severe economic recession and inflation around the world. The new IMF report says that if there is an interruption in the supply of oil, gas and fertilizer from the Gulf countries, it will affect the countries of every continent.
Trump’s threat and IMF’s warning
This serious message from the IMF came just hours after US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if it did not agree to a peace deal. Economists are considering this as a kind of warning to the White House about how bad war can affect the lives of common people. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gorinchas clearly said that the rise in prices of energy and food items will have a negative impact on the world’s economic growth this year and will leave deep wounds on the economy.
The world may have to face these crises
Prices of food items will increase: A blockage in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world’s fertilizer passes, could devastate the farming sector. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations fears that food prices may increase by 15% to 20% by the first half of 2026.
energy crisis: Before the conflict, the price of crude oil was $60 per barrel, which reached $116 on Monday. The price of natural gas in Britain has more than doubled since last December.
People’s standard of living will fall: Due to increase in the prices of petrol and diesel, the costs of the companies will increase and they will be forced to increase the prices of their products. To control this, central banks will have to increase interest rates again, which will make life of common people more difficult. The report also says that countries like Italy and Britain in Europe, which are heavily dependent on gas and electricity, will have to face a major crisis. At the same time, countries like France and Spain are safe to some extent because of the use of nuclear energy.
Trump is ready to negotiate, but the conditions are strict
On the other hand, there are also reports that Donald Trump has shown interest in re-negotiating with Iran. But before talks he has put two strict conditions:
1. The Strait of Hormuz should be completely opened.
2. The Iranian team coming for talks should have the full support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and they should have the right to take decisions on their own.
Behind these conditions is the concern that differences between the political leadership and the military in Iran could hinder an agreement. There are indications that the Iranian government is also beginning to understand that it is necessary to adopt the path of dialogue to save its sinking economy.