The rain in Delhi-Mumbai has raised questions on the predictions of meteorologists. Image Credit source: PTI
The heavy rains first in Mumbai and then in Delhi have raised many questions. Till a few months ago, meteorologists were expressing concern about the impact of El Nino. The Indian Meteorological Department had also expressed the possibility of less than normal rainfall and drought-like situation in some areas. But heavy rain is being seen in many parts of Maharashtra and heavy rain is being seen in Delhi-NCR.
In such a situation, the question is arising whether the effect of El Nino is over? Did the weather department’s prediction prove wrong? Come, let us understand in detail.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon associated with the Pacific Ocean. In this the sea surface temperature becomes higher than normal. It affects the weather of many countries of the world. Monsoon may generally weaken in India during El Nino. Rain may reduce. It may also affect agriculture and water sources. However, its effect is not the same every time. Many other meteorological factors also affect the monsoon.
Condition of Delhi after rain. Photo: PTI
What did the weather department say?
The Indian Meteorological Department had already clarified that El Nino can affect the monsoon. It was also said that the situation will not be the same in the entire country. Some areas may receive normal rainfall, while some places may receive less rainfall. The weather department’s predictions are made keeping in mind the average monsoon of the entire country. This does not mean that the weather will be the same in every city or every district.
Gurugram jam after rain. Photo: PTI
Rain in Delhi-NCR raised questions?
The rains in Delhi-NCR for the last two days, along with providing relief from the heat, have also raised questions on the initial drought predictions of the Meteorological Department. This active nature of monsoon and heavy rains in the national capital has not only created the problem of waterlogging, but has also indicated that despite the shadow of El Nino, local weather systems such as low pressure areas and moisture from monsoon winds are showing their full effect in Delhi-NCR as well.
Here, 180 to 250 mm of rain is expected in the next 24 hours. Like Mumbai, this rain in Delhi also confirms that monsoon is a widespread process, in which immediate atmospheric changes sometimes prove to be more effective than any major global factor (El Nino).
Cars drowned in Navi Mumbai. Photo: PTI
Why did it rain so much in Mumbai?
Mumbai’s rainfall is not determined solely by El Nino. There are many local and regional reasons behind this. Among these, the main reasons are moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, formation of low pressure area, strength of monsoon winds, geographical effect of the Western Ghats and change in sea temperature. When all these conditions come together, heavy rains can occur in Mumbai in a very short period of time. Therefore, the monsoon of the entire country cannot be assessed from the rainfall of any one city.
Waterlogging was seen after rain in many districts of Maharashtra. Photo: PTI
Has the effect of El Nino ended?
The clear answer to this question is no. If there is good rain in any area, it does not mean that El Nino has been completely neutralized. The impact of El Nino can vary at different times and in different regions throughout the season. Sometimes, despite El Nino, some states receive normal or more rainfall. Whereas in other areas there is less rainfall. This is why scientists do not draw conclusions based on data from just one city.
in Delhi 180 to 250 mm of rain is expected in 24 hours. Photo: PTI
Was the weather department’s prediction wrong?
It would not be right to even say this. The Meteorological Department issues forecasts based on probabilities. Weather forecast is not a definite declaration of the future. It is prepared on the basis of available scientific data, sea temperature, wind direction and several climate indicators. If an area receives more rain than expected, it does not mean that the entire forecast was wrong. In meteorology, sometimes local conditions can increase or decrease the impact of large-scale climate events.
Why does the weather forecast change?
Weather is a very complex system. Many factors work together in this. Some important factors work together like sea temperature, wind direction and speed, low and high pressure areas, position of the Indian Ocean, position of monsoon trough, western disturbances etc. Due to all these reasons there can be a sudden change in the weather. This is the reason why the Meteorological Department keeps updating its forecasts from time to time.
The Meteorological Department also keeps updating its forecasts from time to time. Photo: PTI
Does El Nino alone determine monsoon?
The Indian monsoon is influenced by many global and local weather systems. In these, the temperature of the Indian Ocean, moisture of the Arabian Sea, low pressure areas formed in the Bay of Bengal and the strength of monsoon winds also play an important role. Sometimes these factors weaken the effect of El Nino. Therefore, it is not considered impossible to have good rains.
What does this mean for farmers?
If there is good rain in any area then the farmers get relief. Water increases in reservoirs. Irrigation conditions are better. Kharif crops get benefit. But the agriculture of the entire country cannot be assessed only by the rains of Mumbai. In areas where rainfall is less, farmers may still face difficulties. Therefore, decisions related to agriculture should be taken only after considering the local weather and rainfall data.
What is the role of climate change?
Experts believe that due to climate change the weather has become more uncertain than before. Sometimes there is excessive rain in a very short period of time. At the same time, prolonged drought is also seen. That is, in the same season, a flood like situation can occur at some places and a drought like situation can occur at other places, hence it would not be right to draw conclusions about the entire season on the basis of just one incident.
VIDEO | Ghaziabad: Heavy rain lashes parts of Delhi-NCR causing waterlogging in several areas. Visuals from Indirapuram.#IndirapuramNews #Monsoon
(Full video available on PTI Videos – https://t.co/n147TvrpG7) pic.twitter.com/KYXbDsz7HS
— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) July 9, 2026
What should we understand?
Mumbai’s heavy rains definitely show that the weather can sometimes behave differently than expected. But this does not prove that the effect of El Nino has completely ended or that all the predictions of the Meteorological Department were wrong. The job of the weather department is to tell the possible situation. Actual weather may change due to many natural reasons. This is the reason why scientists constantly keep improving their predictions based on new data.
Also know
- 791 mm rainfall was recorded at Mumbai’s Colaba Observatory between July 1 and 7.
- This is much more than the average of 768.5 mm for the entire month of July.
- About 879 mm of rain was recorded in Santa Cruz, another area of Mumbai.
- Long term trends are also indicating increasing rainfall.
- This does not at all mean that the effect of El Nino has ended.
- In El Nino, there is extreme rain at some places and extreme drought like situation at other places.
- Monsoon has just arrived in the country, it is not appropriate to say anything based on a few days of rain.
Also read: Arabia or Portugal, where did the word monsoon come from? Heavy rain in Delhi-NCR
