CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said the bull-bear cycle indicator “has just shifted into the early bull regime,” while cautioning it is “not a perfect signal.”
- Bitcoin rose over 23% week-over-week in its strongest weekly gain since 2023, while the S&P 500 fell 1.43% and MSCI World fell 1.19%.
- Open interest fell by 42,907 BTC over the same seven days to 319,896 BTC, against a seven-day average of 335,409 BTC.
- Short-term holder supply in profit jumped from 26.1% to over 74%, but the cohort’s exchange-flow indicator crossed Adler’s +25K threshold to +28.6K BTC.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally last week caught everyone’s attention. The cryptocurrency edged toward the $78,000 range on Monday after closing the week over 23% higher: its strongest weekly gain since 2023, while the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.43% and MSCI World both declined. However, beneath this rally, one key trading metric is moving in the other direction, with open interest falling rather than rising. This has raised questions in the industry about whether Bitcoin’s latest surge is a start of a broader mega run or a positioning reset.
Bitwise European Head of Research André Dragosch said on X that Bitcoin was up over 23% week over week while the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.43% and MSCI World fell 1.19%. Ethereum (ETH) led the week at 31.48%, and gold rose 5.18%. “Very rare to see such a big performance spread,” Dragosch said. “The decoupling is real.”
BTC Decouples From US Stocks
BTC and SPX have remained highly volatile. Over the last six months, the correlation between SPX and BTC has frequently fluctuated between positive and negative, showing that Bitcoin has occasionally moved in proximity and then deviated. Even if Bitcoin’s price has risen recently, the connection seems to have dropped from high positive levels to mid-range, a generally positive sign for risk assets.
Demand For BTC Is In Question
Bitcoin open interest stood at 319,896 BTC as of Sunday, against a seven-day average of 335,409 BTC, according to the dashboard by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. Open interest measures how many derivatives positions remain open. A decline alongside a 23% price gain suggested that the rally was not driven by new leveraged bets.
Adler’s methodology explained that a sharply negative seven-day change indicated leverage contraction and was “often the most useful reset signal.” Current open interest sat above the historical median of 275,257 BTC.
Bitcoin’s recent run towards 78,000 is also starting to show signs of decoupling from underlying market activity. CryptoCon data shows active Bitcoin addresses around 543,000, with no sustained increase alongside the price surge. BTC’s open interest (OI) is also below former highs. The divergence, therefore, suggests that the rally is not being driven by broad adoption and expansion in network activity or new leverage, and perhaps indicates spot buying and short covering as key drivers of the move.
Short-Term Holders Flipped
In a separate brief, the CryptoQuant analyst said that Bitcoin’s price increase over the past week lifted the share of short-term holder (STH) supply in profit from 26.1% last week to over 74%. Nearly three-quarters of that supply had been at a loss a week earlier.
Over the same stretch, the cohort’s net profit/loss to exchanges indicator moved from negative 18.7K BTC on August 16 to positive 28.6K BTC by Monday, crossing Adler’s +25K threshold. The return to profit “also increased the volume of coins sent to exchanges,” he said, describing it as “increasing potential sell-side pressure.”
Adler said a positive scenario needed exchange flows to cool toward zero while the profit share stayed above 50%. The main risk would come if flows held above +25K BTC, the share in profit approached 90%, and price momentum weakened.
Bitcoin’s price was up over 1% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day.
Are We In A Bull Market?
However, one analyst sees Bitcoin’s price movement in a different way. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said that the bull-bear market cycle indicator “has just shifted into the early bull regime. While it is not a perfect signal, it confirms that market conditions have improved significantly,” Darkfost said, adding that the development would be worth monitoring over the coming weeks.
Why Does It Matter?
Rising prices with rising open interest signal new leveraged positions driving a move, which Adler’s dashboard called participation expanding with the trend. Prices rising while open interest falls points instead to spot buying or shorts closing out. Falling open interest after a violent move “often signals a reset, not necessarily a new trend,” Adler’s notes say.
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