Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has increased India’s economic growth (GDP) estimates on Friday. The agency has estimated GDP growth to be 7.5% for the current financial year and 6.7% for the next year. Also, the average price of crude oil in 2026 is estimated to be around $70 per barrel.
Fitch in December had estimated India’s GDP growth at 7.4% for the current financial year and 6.4% for 2026-27. Fitch says that economic growth may slow down slightly in the first six months of 2026-27. The reason for this will be rising inflation, which may affect people’s real income and spending ability. GDP growth in the December quarter was 7.8% on an annual basis, which was 8.4% in the September quarter.
Support will come from domestic demand
According to Fitch, India’s economy may grow at the rate of 7.5% in the financial year 2025-26. The biggest support for economic growth this year will be domestic demand. It is estimated that consumer spending may increase by 8.6% and investment by 6.9%. In its report Global Economic Outlook March 2026, Fitch said that if the war related to Iran does not increase energy prices very much and for a long time, then global GDP growth in 2026 could be 2.6%. Last year it was 2.7%.
The price of crude oil can be this much
Fitch Ratings Chief Economist Brian Colton said that if the price of crude oil reaches $ 100 per barrel and remains there, it could be a major blow to the global economy. According to Fitch, since the attack by America and Israel on Iran in late February, the price of Brent crude has increased by about $ 20 to about $ 90 per barrel. The report also believes that the Strait of Hormuz may remain affected for about a month, due to which the price of oil may remain between 90-100 dollars till March. After this, by the second half of 2026 the prices may come down to around $60. On this basis, the average price of oil in 2026 is estimated to be $ 70 per barrel, which is more than the December estimate of $ 63.
Indian economy still strong
Fitch believes that this will not have a major impact on global economic growth, inflation or monetary policy. However, the agency also said that there is a possibility of long-term disruption in oil supply in West Asia or damage to production centers. Regarding India, Fitch said that there have been signs of a slight slowdown in economic activity in January and February, but the economy still remains strong and credit growth remains in double digits.