In the exit polls of West Bengal 2026 elections, 5 out of 6 surveys are predicting BJP’s victory. These are post-poll surveys, which were proven wrong in 2021. The final results will come on May 4.
West Bengal Exit Poll Result 2026: The second and final phase of voting ended in West Bengal on Wednesday (April 29). Now the election results of all 5 states will come on May 4. This time a close contest is being seen in Bengal. Due to record breaking voting, all political parties are claiming their victory. However, after voting ended on April 29, before the election results, various survey agencies released exit polls. According to exit poll estimates, this time BJP government seems to be formed in West Bengal.
Who will get how many seats in West Bengal?
- Results of 6 exit polls have come in West Bengal. BJP government is predicted to be formed in 5 and TMC government in one.
- According to Matrice’s exit poll, TMC is expected to get 125 to 140 seats and BJP is expected to get 146 to 161 seats.
- Chanakya Strategies has predicted that TMC will get 130 to 140 seats and BJP will get 150 to 160 seats.
- People’s Pulse has said that TMC will get 177 to 187 seats and BJP will get 95 to 110 seats.
- Praja Poll has said that TMC will get 85 to 110 seats and BJP will get 178 to 200 seats.
- In the exit poll of P-Mark, TMC has been given 118 to 138 seats and BJP has been given 150 to 175 more seats.
- Poll diary has said that TMC will get 99 to 127 seats and BJP will get 142 to 171 seats.
West Bengal: What was the exit poll’s prediction in the last election?
Exit polls for the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2021 had predicted a tough contest between the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Apart from this, the possibility of loss to Congress and CPI(M) was expressed. In the 294-seat assembly, 148 seats are required for majority.
According to the average of exit polls:
- TMC alliance: 143–155 seats
- BJP alliance: 121–134 seats
- United Front (Congress-CPI-M): 12–17 seats
Real results: picture different from exit polls
When the actual results came in, the exit polls’ predictions were proved wrong. Under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee, TMC achieved a huge majority by winning 215 seats. Whereas BJP was reduced to 77 seats. For the first time in the history of the state, the accounts of the Left Front and Congress were not opened. From the United Front, only ISF got 1 seat.
What is Exit Poll?
Exit poll is a type of sample survey, which is conducted immediately after voting. Its purpose is to understand which party or candidate the voters voted for and what their inclination is.
How Exit Poll is Conducted
A fixed questionnaire is prepared for the exit poll. In this the candidate, constituency and local issues are kept in mind. Trained survey teams stand outside the polling stations and ask questions to the people going out to vote and collect their opinions.
How is information taken from voters (Voter Survey Process)
During the survey, voters are asked about their preferences in a confidential manner. Its purpose is to understand what is in their mind. In this, special care is taken that the identity of the people is not revealed and they can give their opinion openly.
Importance of Sampling in Exit Poll
Sampling is very important in exit polls. It is designed in such a way that it includes voters from both urban and rural areas. With this, every section of the society can get proper representation and the results can become more balanced.
Data Analysis and Prediction
The data collected during the survey is later analyzed in detail. On this basis, it is estimated how many seats a party can get and in which direction the election trend can go.
How accurate are exit polls (Accuracy of Exit Polls)
Exit poll results are released after voting ends, giving an initial picture. However, it is not necessary that exit polls prove to be completely correct every time. Sometimes their estimates may differ from the actual results.