The fate of 90 candidates on 9 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh has been captured in the EVM machines. As a result, there was 49.3 percent voting in the by-elections held on Wednesday on 9 seats from Western UP to Awadh and Purvanchal. In 2022, 62.14 percent voting took place on these 9 seats. In this respect, 13 percent less voting took place this time. A major reason for low voting is believed to be the chaos at many places and the strictness of the police administration. SP has been continuously accusing BJP and police administration of dishonesty, but has low voting increased the tension of political parties?
According to the Election Commission, in the by-election, the highest turnout was in Kundarki seat of Moradabad while the lowest turnout was in Ghaziabad seat. Voting was 57.1 percent in Mirapur seat, 57.7 percent in Kundarki, 33.3 percent in Ghaziabad, 46.3 percent in Khair, 54.1 percent in Karhal, 49.1 percent in Sisamau, 43.4 percent in Phulpur, 56.9 percent in Katehari and 50.4 percent in Majhwan. In this way, voting could not cross the 60 percent mark on any seat.
At the same time, if we look at the voting in the 2022 assembly elections, then 62.14 percent voting took place on 9 by-election seats. 56.85 percent in Sisamau, 60.80 percent in Khair seat, 71.26 percent in Kundarki seat, 68.65 percent in Mirapur seat, 66.11 percent in Karhal seat, 51.77 percent in Ghaziabad seat, 62.5 percent in Katehri seat, 61.1 percent in Phulpur seat and 61.1 percent in Majhwan seat. There was 60.3 percent voting. SP had won four, BJP three, RLD one and Nishad Party won one seat.
What is the voting trend of UP saying?
If we look at the voting trend of UP by-elections and in terms of voting in the 2022 elections, there are four seats in the by-elections where there was less than 50 percent voting. There was less than 50 percent voting in Ghaziabad, Khair, Phulpur and Sisamau seats. In 2022, except Sisamau seat, BJP had captured the remaining three seats.
At the same time, more than 55 percent voting took place in the by-elections in Kundarki, Karhal, Katehari and Meerapur seats. In 2022, SP had captured all the three seats except Meerapur. RLD had won Meerapur seat with the support of SP. A little more than 50 percent voting took place in Majhwan seat held by Nishad Party, where BJP has fielded its candidate this time.
In Kundarki seat, the voting has been above 70 percent in the last three elections, but in the by-election, 57.7 percent voting took place. In this way there was 13 percent less voting. Due to this trend, there has been less voting in every seat, but compared to 2022, the lowest voting has been seen in Phulpur seat, where there has been 18 percent less voting. There has been a decrease of only six percent in Sisamau in this time’s by-election.
Who occupied which seat?
Karhal, Sisamau and Kundarki assembly seats have been held by three SPs for a long time. BSP had won Kundarki seat in 2007 and since then SP has been registering victory. BJP is winning Ghaziabad, Phulpur and Khair seats for three consecutive elections. The political mood of Meerapur and Majhwan seats keeps changing with every election, while the mood of Katheri seat changes after two elections. SP had captured it in 2022. Whereas, before that BSP had won and in 2012 SP MLA was elected.
Meerapur, Kundarki, Sisamau are considered Muslim dominated seats, where there are more than 50 percent Muslim voters. Karhal seat is considered to be Yadav dominated, while in Phulpur seat, Yadav-Muslim and Kurmi voters play a decisive role. Similarly, in Katehari seat, Kurmi and Dalit voters are important, while in Majhwan seat, Nishad voters and other OBC voters decide the victory or defeat. In Ghaziabad seat, Brahmin and Vaishya voters are in the decisive role, while in Khair seat, Dalit-Jat voters are in the main role. In such a situation, the boat of by-election will pass only on political equations.
What is the prediction of exit poll?
In the exit polls for the by-elections, the result is being estimated at 3-6 or 2-7. This means that three seats are being won by SP and 6 seats by BJP alliance or 2 seats are seen going to SP and 7 seats are going to the account of BJP alliance. In 2022, out of these 9 seats, SP won four and BJP won three. Apart from this, RLD and Nishad Party were successful in winning one seat each. According to the exit poll, BJP alliance seems to be benefiting in the by-elections whereas, SP is likely to suffer political loss.
At the same time, this trend is also visible in the reduced voting in the by-elections, because the opposition voters have been complaining that they are not being allowed to cast their votes. The ruling party i.e. BJP did not complain that their people were being stopped from voting. Blockades and strictness of the administration have also been seen in most of the Muslim areas, due to which their turnout has been low. Low voting in the by-elections is increasing political tension for SP more than BJP.
