After the voting in Maharashtra, there is now a tussle over political arithmetic. No party seems to be getting majority in the poll of polls, which is going to increase tension for Mahavikas Aghadi. In the Lok Sabha elections held 4 months ago, Mahavikas Aghadi had got a lead on 151 assembly seats.
In such a situation, the question is being raised that what happened in the last 4 months that Mahavikas Aghadi is struggling to touch the required figure of 145 to form the government.
1. Congress created a problem in seat distribution.
The seat distribution of Mahavikas Aghadi remained in the headlines. The local unit of Congress was not ready to contest on less than 120 seats. Finally, after the intervention of the high command, the party officially agreed to accept 102 seats.
During this period, the news of discord between Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress was much discussed. BJP also tried to make it an issue and called Mahavikas Aghadi an unnatural alliance.
2. News of clashes on many seats
One reason for the weakness of Mahavikas Aghadi is the infighting on many seats. For example, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates are in the fray for Solapur South seat. This seat has been a stronghold of Congress. Former Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde is the leader here.
During the voting, Sushil Kumar Shinde left Uddhav’s candidate and supported an independent. Recently, Sanjay Raut had expressed apprehension that the game of Sangli model is going on in many seats.
In fact, in the Lok Sabha elections, senior Congress leaders left the alliance candidate and supported independent Vishal Patil on Sangli seat. With this, Shiv Sena (Uddhav) candidate reached the third position.
3. Not taking final decision on CM face
When Mahavikas Aghadi was formed in 2019, Uddhav Thackeray was the face of the alliance. When the government fell, Thackeray also tried to get sympathy. Mahavikas Aghadi also benefited from this in the Lok Sabha elections, but after this the tone of Congress changed.
Congress created a dilemma regarding the post of CM. By not declaring Uddhav Thackeray as CM, the party said that the decision will be taken after the elections. Sharad Pawar also joined the Congress.
Due to the tug of war around the CM face, cracks were seen at many places in the alliance. For example, in those seats where Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress are in strong positions.
4. Congress has weak leadership
On behalf of MVA, Congress has contested the maximum number of 102 seats in the entire Maharashtra, but the party neither had any face nor equation for the whole of Maharashtra. State President Nana Patole remained confined to Vidarbha only. Deshmukh family also could not get out of Latur. Even in Mumbai the party did not have a popular face.
In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress was successful in playing on the issues of Dalits and Constitution in Vidarbha, but this time the party did not give strong impetus to those issues here.
However, Congress’s promise regarding farmers is being considered as a game changer. Congress has made many big promises to the cotton and onion farmers before the elections.
What is the Poll of Polls of Maharashtra?
Most of the agencies that have released exit polls regarding Maharashtra have given majority to the NDA alliance. In the exit poll of Peoples Pulse, NDA is estimated to get 175 to 195 seats, Indian Alliance to get 85 to 112 seats and others to get 7 to 12 seats.
P Mark has expressed the possibility of a close fight. According to its poll, NDA may get 137-157 seats, India may get 126-146 seats and others may get 2-8 seats.
In the MATRIZE exit poll, NDA is seen getting 150 to 170 seats and India Alliance is seen getting 110 to 130 seats. At the same time, 8 to 10 seats can also go to others. According to the exit poll of Chanakya Strategies, NDA may get 152 to 160 seats, India Alliance may get 130 to 138 seats and others may get 6 to 8 seats.
