The importance of Rajya Sabha has always been very important in the politics of the country. Despite having majority in the Lok Sabha, it is considered necessary for any government to have sufficient numerical strength in the Rajya Sabha to pass major bills and constitutional amendments.
Now Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once again seems to be strengthening its position in Rajya Sabha. The party’s numbers are expected to increase further after the three Rajya Sabha by-elections to be held in West Bengal.
Political analysts believe that if the expected results come out, the BJP will move closer to the simple majority mark in the Rajya Sabha on its own. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is already considered to be in a strong position in the House. In such a situation, political turmoil has intensified regarding the upcoming monsoon session of Parliament and possible big bills.
Why are the by-elections to be held on July 24 important?
By-elections are proposed for three Rajya Sabha seats of West Bengal on July 24. These seats had become vacant after the resignation of three former MPs, who later joined the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Looking at the current numerical strength in the West Bengal Assembly, political experts believe that BJP is likely to perform better on these seats. If the party wins these three seats, its total strength in Rajya Sabha will become stronger.
For this reason, these by-elections are not just being seen as elections for three seats, but are being linked to the larger equation of national politics.
What is the mathematics of majority in Rajya Sabha?
The simple majority figure for any party in the Rajya Sabha is considered to be 123 seats.
If the BJP achieves its projected lead after the West Bengal by-elections, the party will be just a few seats short of this figure. Although it would still not result in an absolute majority on its own, this situation could make the party’s political strength much stronger than before.
On the other hand, the alliance comprising NDA allies is already in an influential position in the House.
Big record may change after 1986
The year 1986 is considered an important milestone in the history of Indian politics. At that time, Congress had a clear majority in the Rajya Sabha under the leadership of the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.
After this, many governments were formed, but no single party could get the same majority in the Rajya Sabha. Now after almost four decades, once again such a situation seems to be emerging, where a party can come very close to majority on its own.
However, right now it will only depend on the possibilities and upcoming election results.
Why is monsoon session considered very important?
The upcoming monsoon session of Parliament is considered very important for many reasons. There is discussion in political circles that the government may introduce some important bills and constitutional amendments during this period.
The topics that are being mentioned most in the discussion include-
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Proposal related to delimitation
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Possible steps related to implementation of Women Reservation Law
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Other constitutional amendments
However, the official announcement of the final legislative program on all these subjects is awaited from the government.
How much majority is required for constitutional amendment?
A simple majority alone is not enough to amend the Indian Constitution.
Most constitutional amendments require a two-thirds majority of the members present and voting in both Houses of Parliament, as well as a majority of the total number of members. This political mathematics in Rajya Sabha becomes very important for both the government and the opposition.
For this reason, the government keeps an eye not only on its own seats but also on the stance of its allies and other regional parties.
Regional parties can play a decisive role
Political analysts believe that many regional parties can play the role of ‘kingmaker’ or ‘balance of power’ during the upcoming important bills.
The parties which are being discussed mainly are-
DMK
South India’s leading party DMK has many MPs in the Rajya Sabha. If the party supports a bill or abstains from voting, it can have a direct impact on its numerical strength.
YSR Congress
This party of Andhra Pradesh has also been taking decisions on many important occasions as per the stand of the government. Political analysts believe that his support on some bills can prove important for the government.
Biju Janata Dal (BJD)
Odisha’s BJD has long been taking an independent stand on many national issues. Its support or remaining neutral on issues like women’s reservation is considered beneficial for the government.
other MPs
Some independent MPs and small parties can also play an important role during any constitutional amendment.
What could be the government’s strategy?
According to political experts, the government is not only focusing on increasing the numerical strength, but is also working on the strategy of maintaining dialogue with various parties.
If some opposition parties abstain from voting or vote in favor of the government, the mathematics of two-thirds majority may be relatively easy.
However, this will entirely depend on the relevant bills, political circumstances and decisions taken by the parties at that time.
The challenge of the opposition is also no less.
On the other hand, the opposition is also trying to strengthen its strategy in the Rajya Sabha. The opposition parties will try to challenge the government by making a joint strategy on important bills.
Political analysts believe that the upcoming monsoon session can prove to be a big test not only of the legislative process but also of political strategies.
What impact can it have on the country’s politics?
If BJP and NDA further strengthen their position in Rajya Sabha, it may be relatively easier for the government to push through many important bills.
However, in matters like constitutional amendment, numerical strength alone is not enough, broad political consensus also plays an important role.
This is the reason that in the coming months, the eyes of the entire country will be on every political activity taking place inside the Parliament.
The by-elections to be held on three Rajya Sabha seats of West Bengal can prove to be important for Indian politics. If the expected results materialize, BJP will further strengthen its position in the Rajya Sabha and move closer to a simple majority. The entire country will keep an eye on the strategy of both the government and the opposition regarding possible constitutional amendments and big bills in the upcoming monsoon session. In the coming days, the role of regional parties may also prove important in deciding the direction of national politics.