The fate of the candidates contesting by-elections on 9 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh has been sealed in EVMs. The 13 percent decrease in voting from the last election has complicated the political mathematics. Political parties may claim their respective victories but no one is completely sure. Even after the BJP wave in the 2022 elections, SP was successful in winning four seats and in 2024 it got lead on six seats. In the by-elections held after five months, SP’s cycle ran at full speed in Karhal seat but its speed seems to be slowed down in Muslim dominated seats.
Among the 9 seats of UP where by-elections have been held, Sisamau, Khair, Kundarki, Meerapur, Karhal, Ghaziabad, Katehari, Phulpur and Majhwan seats are there. In 2022, SP won four seats, BJP won three, RLD won one seat and Nishad Party won one seat. In the by-elections, BJP has contested on 8 seats while RLD has fielded a candidate on one seat. SP and BSP have tried their luck on all the 9 seats while Asaduddin Owaisi and Chandrashekhar Azad have also fielded their candidates. Even after this, a direct contest has been seen between SP and BJP alliance.
SP’s political equation seems to be going haywire
SP was successful in winning Yadav and Muslim dominated seats in the 2022 elections. SP was also successful in winning 37 seats in the Lok Sabha elections through PDA formula. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had bet on this formula in the by-elections, but due to BSP’s silence and BJP’s return to aggressive Hindutva agenda, the political equation of SP seems to be getting disturbed. Due to this, there is a danger of SP losing many of its seats.
Its indications were clearly visible in the exit polls regarding the by-elections. Exit polls have predicted 2-7 and 3-6. SP seems to be getting 2 or 3 seats while the BJP alliance is expected to get 6 or 7 seats. If the exit poll projections translate into 23 results, then it is clear that BJP will be successful in defeating SP on the seats won.
Yadav voters were seen mobilized in favor of SP
Karhal assembly seat is considered Yadav dominated and has been a traditional seat of SP. Due to the resignation of Akhilesh Yadav, by-election was held, from here Tej Pratap Yadav tried his luck. BJP had fielded Anujesh Yadav against Tej Pratap, who is the brother-in-law of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav. 54.1 percent voting took place in Karhal.
Voters of Yadav community have come out of their homes in large numbers to reach the booth and it is believed that they are seen mobilized in favor of SP. Due to this, all the exit polls are predicting SP’s victory in Karhal seat. SP has lost this seat only once and later absorbed the winning MLA. That is why there are hopes of things going in favor of SP.
Brake imposed on Muslim dominated seats?
RLD had won Meerapur assembly seat in 2022 with the support of SP but contested the by-election with the support of BJP. The contest seemed to be narrowing between Mithlesh Pal from RLD, Sumbul Rana from SP, while Shah Nazar from BSP was seen fighting for the third and fourth positions between ASP and AIMIM. In the village dominated by OBC and Jat votes, there was a trend in favor of the RLG candidate.
In Muslim dominated villages Kakrauli, Sikri, Meerapur, Jatwada, Jauli, in the morning Muslim voters were seen divided between SP, BSP and ASP. After the stone pelting in Kakrauli, the Muslim community was definitely seen mobilized in favor of SP, but the strictness of the administration slowed down the pace of their voting. This may definitely put a brake on the speed of SP. SP did not seem to be successful in creating a Dalit-Muslim formula here.
Did the dispersion of votes spoil SP’s mathematics?
Kundarki seat has 62 percent Muslim voters and SP has never lost on this seat after 2007. There was a direct contest between BJP and SP on Kundarki seat, but the dispersion of Muslim votes has spoiled SP’s calculations. BJP candidate Ramveer Singh seemed successful in breaking into the traditional vote bank of SP. While voters were seen going with BJP in Muslim areas, at many places the Muslim community was also seen divided between the candidates of BSP, AIMIM and AAP. It is believed that this seat is being lost from SP’s account due to SP candidate Haji Rizwan demanding re-election.
SP has been in possession of Sisamau assembly seat for two decades. This Muslim-dominated seat has become vacant due to the conviction of former SP MLA Irfan Solanki and the party had nominated his wife Naseem Solanki as its candidate. BJP has made Suresh Awasthi its candidate, who has been losing in the last three elections. There was a protest in Sisamau since morning regarding the barrier installed by the police. Angered by blocking the way to the tomb in Gwaltoli area by placing barricades all around, people created a ruckus accusing the police of stopping voters from voting. Similar cases have come to light at many places, due to which the path of SP has become difficult.
PDA formula weakened in by-elections?
12 candidates are trying their luck in Phulpur Assembly by-election but the main contest was between BJP and SP. In some areas, SP appeared to be dominant and in some areas, BJP was seen gaining momentum. The result will be decided on in whose favor the Dalit voters voted. SP had fielded Muslim candidates on this seat but the PDA formula of 2024 does not seem united. The votes of Maurya and the Dalit community that came with the SP could not be mobilized in the by-elections, whereas the BJP had strengthened its scattered equation with strategy.
There were reports of fake voting at many places in Karhal. There were many complaints of stopping Muslim voters. Police took away many booth agents and destroyed their bags. Akhilesh Yadav said that BJP wants to remain in the government by suppressing democracy and the Constitution, whereas in a democracy the government runs on public opinion. BJP is expert in sabotaging free and fair elections. Similarly, the kind of incidents that have come to light on the seats are against the democratic process. BJP is trying to win elections by strangulating democracy with the help of pistol. He alleged that the administration was working in favor of a particular political party. In Katehari assembly seat, the blockade and strictness of the administration in Muslim dominated areas can put a brake on the speed of SP.
