Tension in the Middle East, along with quarterly results, 5 factors will decide the movement of the stock market.
The Indian stock market witnessed massive buying on Friday, April 17, leading the benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — to rise for the second consecutive week. The Sensex closed at 78,493.54, up 505 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty 50 settled at 24,353.55, up 157 points, or 0.65 per cent. Meanwhile, mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth tech firm, said in a Mint report that the market is likely to be mainly driven by news in the coming week, although the bias will be positive. He said that investors’ attention will remain focused on the direction of US-Iran talks. Given the impact on global risk assets, capital flows and crude oil prices, investors will pay more attention to signs of a lasting solution rather than short-term headlines.
Continued stability or further decline in crude oil prices can strengthen the equity market and also support the macroeconomic scenario. He further said that the overall market environment has improved; The continuation of this uptrend will depend on whether purchasing continues in the future and how stable the external conditions remain. Any adverse geopolitical developments or sudden rise in oil prices can again bring volatility in the market.
The movement of the stock market will be decided by these 5 factors
Q4 results 2026
Fourth quarter results have started coming in in full swing, as HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Havells, IndusInd Bank, M&M Finance and Shriram Finance are going to announce their results next week. On Monday, market participants will initially react to the results of banking giants like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.
Ponmudi said that Q4 earnings season will be the main attraction, which will decide the movement of stocks across sectors. Management comments and earnings surprises—especially from larger companies—can play an important role in determining the direction of the index.
US-Iran War
The US-Iran peace agreement seems to be under strain once again, as tensions between the two sides have increased again. Iran has expressed concern over the slow pace of talks, while Donald Trump remains optimistic. Tehran has also reiterated that Washington is making demands that it considers excessive. These developments have come to light amid renewed uncertainty over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Iran has reversed its earlier decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing the ongoing US blockade. According to reports, the next round of US-Iran talks is scheduled to be held in Pakistan on Monday.
crude oil prices
Global markets responded positively on Saturday as US-Iran ceasefire eased fears of energy supply disruptions, with oil prices falling and equity indexes rising. Data showed commodities led the way, while major stock benchmarks posted strong gains. Brent crude closed at $ 91.87 per barrel, down 7.57 percent from its previous level of $ 99.39. During the session, it touched a low of $86.08, taking it further away from its 52-week peak of $114.81.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 9.63 per cent to $9.12 and settled at $85.57. In contrast, gold prices rose marginally and rose by $0.94 to reach $4,833.56. The coming week will be very important, in which both global and domestic developments can decide the direction of the market. Special attention will be paid to geopolitical developments related to the US-Iran conflict, because they have a direct impact on crude oil prices and global risk sentiment.
gold and silver prices
The rising trend in gold prices continued on Friday. The reason for this was the weakening of the dollar and the statement of Iran’s Foreign Minister that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire. This development put pressure on oil prices and reduced inflation concerns. Spot gold rose by $ 1.5 to 4,861.32 per ounce, taking its weekly gain to more than 2 percent. At the same time, US gold futures also closed at $ 4,879.60, up 1.5 percent. Spot silver jumped 4.2 percent to $ 81.71 an ounce and has gained more than 7% so far this week.
FII profit booking
Foreign investors continued their selling of India’s debt markets in April, with outflows exceeding Rs 1 billion so far this month. The main reasons for this continuous selling are geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, increased hedging costs, changes in global yields and domestic macroeconomic concerns. Since April 1, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold Indian debt worth more than $1.23 billion. If this trend continues, it will be their biggest monthly selloff after April 2025. In comparison, FIIs had sold debt worth more than $977 million in the month of March. Expecting stability in the rupee, FPIs became buyers in the last three trading days, although the rise was marginal. The fall in Brent crude prices to around $90 after the news of opening of the Strait of Hormuz will further strengthen the rupee in the near future.
