New Delhi: Prashant Kishor has won the Bankipur Assembly bypoll in Bihar by defeating BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar Sinha by over 19,300 votes.
The founder of Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) secured 64,151 votes, while the BJP candidate received 44,827 votes after the completion of all 32 rounds of counting.
The Bankipur seat fell vacant after BJP President Nitin Nabin was elected to the Rajya Sabha. The bypoll was held on July 30, with voter turnout falling below 35 per cent. Despite the low participation, Kishor managed to build a clear lead and register a victory that has given his newly formed party its first major electoral success.
Bihar Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary congratulated him on X, In this great festival of democracy, the people of Bankipur Assembly constituency have chosen the Jan Suraaj in the bypoll. I respect the decision and extend my heartfelt congratulations to Shri Prashant Kishor on his victory.
From student protests and local issues to the BJPs candidate change and campaign strategy, political observers have cited several factors behind Kishors victory.
Student protests created an impact
The Bankipur bypoll took place at a time when student protests over the NEET paper leak issue were taking place in Delhi and Bihar. Demanding the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) organised protests, including the July 20 march to Parliament.
The police action against protesters during the march led to demonstrations in several parts of Bihar on July 22, 23 and 25. A Bihar bandh was also called on July 25, while a video showing a policeman in Siwan opening fire at protesters with an AK-47 circulated on social media.
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Experts said the student protests had an effect on the Bankipur election.
After the protests in Delhi, demonstrations took place in different parts of Bihar, and hundreds of students were arrested. For the first time since the JP movement, students were seen reaching places like the Raj Bhavan and the Chief Ministers Secretariat. All these areas fall within the Bankipur constituency, said noted political commentator DM Diwakar, former director of A N Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna.
He said, The protests in Delhi had a considerable impact on this election.
Senior journalist Suroor Ahmed also agreed that student protests played a role in the election.
Bharat Tiwari case became a local issue
The killing of 26-year-old Bharat Bhushan Tiwari in an alleged police encounter also emerged as an issue during the election. A resident of Bhojpur district, he died during treatment after suffering injuries in the incident on June 17.
The Bihar Police in a statement said, The police team opened fire to protect themselves and others, and the bullet hit Bharat Bhushan in the leg.”
However, his family rejected the police version and alleged that the incident was a planned act.
Diwakar said the delay in action in the case affected public sentiment. He said a judicial commission has been formed but progress is slow, while Tiwaris family had met Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary in Patna.
Samrat Choudhary took action in this matter after a considerable delay, and the STF personnel was arrested much later. There were also rumours that Tiwaris family members would join Kishors election campaign, but that did not happen. However, the issue had a strong emotional impact on people,” Diwakar said.
BJPs candidate change affected the campaign
The BJP initially announced Abhishek Kumar Sinha as its candidate for Bankipur. However, he withdrew his nomination the next day, after which the party fielded Neeraj Kumar Sinha.
Both Diwakar and Ahmed believe the sudden change created uncertainty among party supporters. Several BJP leaders showed interest in contesting from the seat, which has a sizeable Kayastha voter base.
Ahmed said, This seat has a sizeable Kayastha vote base, and leaders like Ajay Alok were also in the race for a ticket. However, the BJP suddenly changed its candidate. Around the same time, a BJP leader said that anyone could win from this seat. This created a feeling among BJP voters that they were being taken for granted.
Diwakar said, One possibility is that after Nitin Nabin became the national president, leaders close to him did not put in enough effort to win this seat. It can be said that Prashant Kishor exposed the BJPs weaknesses.
Low turnout and JD(U)s limited presence
The Bankipur bypoll recorded less than 35 per cent voting. Analysts believe the turnout pattern also affected the BJP.
Diwakar said the JD(U), which is part of the ruling alliance, did not have a visible presence during the campaign.
During the Bankipur bypoll, it appeared that the JD(U), a coalition partner of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), was not actively involved in the contest and the BJP was fighting the election on its own,” he said.
Ahmed said the candidate change and low turnout worked against the BJP. He added that if Kishor had not contested, voting could have dropped further.
Kishors attack on Samrat Choudhary
During the campaign, Kishor targeted Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary more than other senior BJP leaders.
Ahmed said Kishors strategy suited Bankipur, an educated and affluent constituency where many senior professionals, including lawyers and judges, live.
The Bankipur constituency includes areas where many MLAs, MPs, judges and lawyers live. In a way, it is a highly educated and affluent area. Therefore, Prashant Kishors strategy of targeting Samrat Choudhary also worked during the election,” he said.
Diwakar said Kishor avoided targeting BJP President Nitin Nabin or other BJP leaders and directed his criticism at Choudhary.
Prashant Kishor never mentioned Nitin Nabin or any other senior leader in his speeches. Whatever attacks he made were directed only at Samrat Choudhary. In his speeches, he repeatedly accused him of being corrupt and criminal, he said.
The impact of Kishors win
Analysts see Kishors Bankipur victory as an important step for the JSP, though they caution against drawing conclusions about future elections from a single bypoll.
Diwakar said the win could help Kishor build a political image. Before the voting, the Bihar Police arrested 64 people at 2 am. After this, Prashant Kishor filed a complaint against the senior superintendent of police (SSP) with the chief election commissioner. So, this victory will have a mixed impact for Prashant Kishor,” he said.
Ahmed said the future political impact of the victory would become clearer with time, but added that the result would be a setback for the BJP.