According to Moody’s, the Middle East crisis poses a serious threat to India’s oil supply. India imports 46% of its crude oil from there. Despite alternative routes, normalization of supply remains difficult even by 2026.
New Delhi: Due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, oil importing countries like India are facing a huge shortage in the supply of oil and gas. Rating agency Moody’s has said in one of its reports that even if these countries hold bilateral talks for other sea routes, it is difficult for oil transport to return to normal even by 2026.
Fear of GDP decline?
Moody’s said in its global report on geopolitical risks, ‘India is one of the most risky countries. The reason for this is that India imports about 46% of its total crude oil from the Middle East. Apart from this, the fall in the value of rupee will also impact India.
Earlier, Moody’s had estimated that due to the oil crisis, India’s GDP could fall by 6% instead of 6.8%. This new report has come after this.
What else is in the report?
According to the Moody’s report, ‘We expect that major oil importing countries like China, India, Japan and Korea will hold bilateral talks with Iran. It is possible that a separate oil transport corridor could be created through the sea route between Larak Island and Oman. However, it is difficult for the supply to return to the pre-war situation even in 2026.
The report further said that even if safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in the next 6 months, supply in the oil market will still remain limited. High demand and price fluctuations will have a big impact on countries. Moody’s estimates that this year the price of Brent crude oil may remain in the range of 90 to 110 dollars per barrel.