The math is based on Nvidia’s chart showing its share of IT capex at the five largest cloud service providers.
- O’Malley’s “napkin math” implies $237B in Nvidia hyperscaler revenue in 2026, above Barclays’ current $206B estimate.
- In Barclays’ upside case, Nvidia’s hyperscaler revenue could reach $246B in 2026 and $417B in 2027.
- Nvidia’s share of that spending is projected to reach 44% in 2027, according to O’Malley.
Nvidia (NVDA) could end up generating more hyperscaler revenue than Wall Street currently expects, with Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley using “napkin math” from Nvidia’s latest IT spending data to estimate $401 billion in 2027 revenue.
In a note to investors cited by TheFly, he said the calculation leaves out SpaceX (SPCX) from the capex comparison, potentially making the implied revenue opportunity even larger.
NVDA stock edged 0.6% higher in morning trade on Thursday, with retail sentiment around the company on Stocktwits trending in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day.
The ‘Napkin Math’ Of Nvidia Revenue
According to O’Malley’s calculations, Nvidia could generate $237 billion in hyperscaler revenue in 2026 and $401 billion in 2027, compared with Barclays’ existing estimates of $206 billion and $370 billion, respectively.
In an upside scenario, the firm sees hyperscaler revenue reaching $246 billion in 2026 and $417 billion in 2027.
The calculation is based on a chart Nvidia shared, showing its share of IT capital spending among the five largest cloud service providers over the past several years, as well as its estimate for 2027. Nvidia’s share is projected to reach 44% in 2027, according to O’Malley.
SpaceX Could Make The Math Even Bigger
Nvidia’s reported hyperscaler revenue includes SpaceX (SPCX), while the 44% IT capex share shown in its chart covers only the top five cloud service providers.
Barclays says that difference would imply an even larger total hyperscaler revenue figure if SpaceX were included in the spending-share calculation.
This matters because Nvidia’s AI infrastructure customer base has expanded beyond the traditional group of hyperscalers, with diversified companies spending heavily on GPUs and related infrastructure to build capacity for both AI training and inference.
The firm currently has an ‘Overweight’ rating on Nvidia with a $275 price target.
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