Nio rejected the Pentagon’s designation as a ‘Chinese military company,’ calling it ‘unjustified.’
- Deutsche Bank forecasts a second-quarter non-GAAP net profit of 180 million yuan, up 304% from the previous quarter.
- The bank raised its 2026 delivery forecast to 450,000 vehicles, increased its ES9 estimate to 56,000 units, and lifted its price target to HK$86.
- Nio’s newly launched ES9 delivered 3,108 units in its first four days, with Deutsche Bank estimating more than 25,000 non-cancellable orders.
U.S.-listed shares of Nio (NIO) jumped over 2% in overnight trading heading into Tuesday, as investors focused on Deutsche Bank’s improving profitability outlook and strong demand for the company’s flagship SUV, brushing aside concerns after the Pentagon added the Chinese EV maker to its list of “Chinese military companies.”
The overnight bounce followed a 2% decline on Monday, Nio’s fourth straight session of losses.
Deutsche Bank Sees Nio’s Return To Profitability
Deutsche Bank said that Nio could post adjusted net profit of about 180 million yuan ($26.5 million) in the second quarter, a 304% increase from the prior quarter, driven by stable margins and growing sales of higher-margin SUV models, according to a report by CnEVPost.
The bank raised its 2026 delivery forecast to 450,000 vehicles, up 38% from the previous year, increased its ES9 delivery estimate to 56,000 units and lifted its price target to HK$86 from HK$84.50. It also cut Nio’s 2026 loss forecast by over 35%. Nio reported adjusted operating profit of 66.8 million yuan in the first quarter and expanded its gross margin to 19%, marking a second straight quarter of non-GAAP profitability.
Nio’s SUV Bet Pays Off
The bullish outlook comes amid strong demand for the newly launched ES9 SUV, which delivered 3,108 units in its first four days on the market following its May 27 launch. Deutsche Bank estimates that the ES9 has secured over 25,000 non-cancellable orders, with delivery wait times ranging from eight to nine weeks for base models and up to 16 to 17 weeks for higher-end variants. Nio expects to deliver its 10,000th ES9 this month.
The company’s ES8 also remains a key growth driver, delivering 11,475 units in May and extending its streak of monthly deliveries above 10,000 units to seven consecutive months. Nio delivered a record 37,705 vehicles in May and expects second-quarter deliveries of 110,000 to 115,000 units.
Nio’s momentum comes amid intensifying competition in China’s premium SUV market, with Huawei-backed Aito recently launching an updated M9 and Li Auto and Nio publicly clashing over vehicle performance comparisons.
Nio Rejects Military Claims
The rally came despite the Pentagon adding Nio to its list of Chinese military companies alongside BYD, CATL, Hesai and other Chinese firms. Nio rejected the claim as “unjustified,” saying it is neither a Chinese military company nor a contributor to military-civil fusion.
“The CMC List is not a sanctions list. The U.S. government procurement limitations tied to the list will not impact the business of the Company, and the CMC List does not restrict transacting in the securities of the Company,” the company said in a statement. Nio added that it will engage with the Department of Defense and may pursue legal action if necessary.
The CMC label essentially enforces restrictions on U.S. government procurement, not sanctions. However, Nio — alongside other Chinese peers — does not currently sell its products in the United States due to prohibitive 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, strict data-security restrictions on Chinese connected vehicles, and mounting political friction.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About NIO?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nio was ‘bearish’ amid a 267% jump in 24-hour message volume.
One user said, “$NIO Just buy and hold. Planning on a run that can produce generational wealth. In my option, this is the one.”
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Another user said, “$NIO The NYSE is supposed to be a neutral, global arena for capitalism, but it has increasingly been weaponized as a geopolitical battlefield.”
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Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has risen 50% over the past year.
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