India is expected to experience an unusually wet start to pre-monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting above-normal rainfall across the country in May 2026, surpassing 110% of the Long Period Average. While most of nation will receive ample showers, providing relief from heat, the distribution is expected to be uneven.
India is likely to witness an unusually wet start to the pre-monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting above-normal rainfall across the country in May 2026. The most recent forecast indicates that the month’s rainfall will surpass 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating a notable departure from normal early summer circumstances.
Based on statistics from 1971 to 2020, the LPA for May rainfall is 64.1 mm for both North India and the entire nation. According to projections, most areas will have normal to above-average rainfall this year, which might alleviate early-season hot conditions and provide respite from rising temperatures. However, the distribution of rainfall is expected to be uneven.
Some areas of east and northeast India, as well as east-central regions, may get less rainfall than usual, even if most of the nation is expected to receive plenty of showers. Planning for agriculture may be impacted by this geographical heterogeneity, especially for crops that depend on early seasonal rainfall.
The IMD has issued a warning for severe weather activity in a number of areas for the near future. Up till May 5, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and portions of northeast India are predicted to have moderately widespread to widespread rainfall combined with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty gusts that can reach 40 to 60 kmph.
Concerns for localised floods and interruptions are raised by the likelihood of severe to extremely heavy rainfall in certain places. Other regions of the nation are expected to see similar weather.
Between May 3 and May 6, isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds are predicted for the Western Himalayan area, the plains of northwest India, and the surrounding central regions. Storm activity is also anticipated over the same time period in eastern India and states along the east coast.
Such weather patterns are typical of the transition period between spring and the southwest monsoon, according to meteorologists, but the amount and intensity of rainfall in May may be more than normal. Strong winds and increased thunderstorm activity can also be dangerous for outdoor activities, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Large portions of India have been struggling with increasing temperatures during the time of the prediction. In the short term, above-average rainfall might promote water availability, enhance soil moisture, and reduce heat.
As India heads into May, the IMD has urged state authorities and residents to stay updated with local weather advisories, especially in regions prone to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.