According to sources, there is little possibility of a reshuffle in the Modi cabinet before the monsoon session. At present the government is focusing completely on passing important bills.
Modi Cabinet Expansion: The central government is currently busy preparing for the upcoming monsoon session of Parliament. According to sources, the possibility of reshuffle or expansion in the Union Cabinet before the start of the session is very less. At present, the entire focus of the government is on getting important bills passed by the Parliament. Sources say that the monsoon session may start from the third week of July, possibly from July 20. In such a situation, the possibility of cabinet expansion is now considered more likely in September or October.
Why can cabinet expansion be postponed before monsoon session?
According to sources, the government is currently giving priority to passing necessary laws in Parliament instead of making changes in ministers. In the coming session, there are preparations to discuss and pass important bills like delimitation and ‘one country, one election’. In such a situation, cabinet reshuffle before the session may cause resentment among the leaders who may be removed from the cabinet. The government does not have two-thirds majority on every issue in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. Therefore, an attempt is being made to avoid any kind of political dissatisfaction before voting on important bills.
Possibility of cabinet expansion in September-October
Sources say that if the cabinet expansion is done after the monsoon session, the government may get time to garner the necessary political support and better coordination with allies. For this reason, the possibility of cabinet expansion in September or October is said to be high.
Time reduced due to Prime Minister’s busy schedule
- The time for cabinet reshuffle before the monsoon session is also quite limited. President Draupadi Murmu is on a two-day visit to Andhra Pradesh and will return on the evening of July 1.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be busy in programs related to the visit of the Prime Minister of Japan to India from July 1 to 3.
- On July 4, the Prime Minister will visit Rajasthan.
- From July 6 to 11, PM Modi will be on a tour of Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand.
- In view of these programs, only July 5 is being considered available for cabinet expansion before the monsoon session.
- Even if the extension happens before July 20, the new ministers will get very little time to prepare for the Parliament session.
In the past too, a major reshuffle has taken place just before the session.
However, this will not be the first time that there is a change in the cabinet before the Parliament session. The major cabinet reshuffle was made just before the start of the Parliament session in the Modi 2.0 government on 7 July 2021. At that time, 12 senior ministers, including Ravi Shankar Prasad and Prakash Javadekar, were dropped from the cabinet, while 36 new faces were included in the cabinet.
When did cabinet expansion take place in the last 12 years?
In the last 12 years, the Modi government has expanded the Union Cabinet four times.
- November 2014: 21 new ministers were inducted.
- July 2016: 19 new ministers were appointed and 5 ministers were removed.
- September 2017: 9 new ministers were inducted, 4 ministers were promoted and 6 were dropped.
- July 2021: 36 new ministers were inducted and 12 ministers were dropped from the cabinet.
On which posts are there vacancies?
Some posts in the Union Cabinet are currently vacant.
- George Kurien has left the post of Minister of State (MoS) for Minority Affairs after the end of his Rajya Sabha tenure.
- Whereas Ravneet Singh Bittu remains a Union Minister despite not being a member of any House. It is believed that keeping in view the politics of Punjab and the upcoming elections, he has been retained in the cabinet for the time being.
The principle of ‘one person, one post’ will also be monitored
Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary has been made the state president of Uttar Pradesh BJP. Similarly, Minister of State Harsh Malhotra has been given the responsibility of Delhi BJP. In such a situation, under the principle of ‘one person, one post’, the question is arising whether both the leaders will be removed from the cabinet. However, political experts believe that the removal of Pankaj Chaudhary before the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections may send a wrong message among the Kurmi community. Earlier too, as part of election strategy, Vijay Sampla and G. Leaders like Kishan Reddy were retained in the cabinet despite being the state president.
What will be the focus in the next cabinet expansion?
1. Review of the work of ministers
On May 21, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reviewed the work of all the ministers in the Council of Ministers meeting. During this, the Cabinet Secretary also gave a detailed presentation. It is believed that this review can play an important role in the next reshuffle.
2. Young leaders may get a chance
The BJP leadership is now giving more emphasis on young faces. Since the age of the party president is below 50 years, there is a possibility of young leaders getting a place in the cabinet also. In the current cabinet, 8 ministers are in the age group of 70 to 80 years. In such a situation, his role will also be monitored.
3. Keeping an eye on Rajya Sabha tenure
The Rajya Sabha tenure of two Union ministers Hardeep Singh Puri and BL Verma is ending in November. There is also discussion regarding his re-nomination.
4. Emphasis on increasing women’s participation
The government is preparing to implement 33 percent reservation for women from 2029. In such a situation, there is a possibility of focus on increasing the participation of women in the cabinet. At present, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is the only woman member in the Cabinet Committee on Security.
5. Impact of upcoming assembly elections
Assembly elections are to be held in seven states next year. In such a situation, leaders from those states are expected to get representation in the cabinet.
6. Lateral entry can also be considered
According to sources, some more former bureaucrats may also be included in the Union Cabinet in future. The name of former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is also being discussed.
7. Special focus will be on OBC representation
The government’s focus on Other Backward Classes (OBC), which is considered politically important, may continue in future also. Since caste related column has also been included in the ongoing census, important decisions can also be taken regarding OBC representation in the next cabinet expansion.