MCX’s revenue is projected to grow at a 19% CAGR through FY30, fueled by rising investor numbers and new products, says a Macquarie report. India’s under-penetrated commodities market has significant room for expansion, with revenue seen rising.
Strong Revenue Growth Forecast
The report said the Indian commodities market remains under-penetrated and has significant room for growth. It expects the exchange’s revenue to rise from Rs 23.02 billion in FY26 to Rs 39.92 billion by FY29, with revenue growth estimated at 24.5 per cent in FY27, 22.4 per cent in FY28 and 13.8 per cent in FY29.
Key Growth Drivers
The brokerage said the expansion would be driven by a larger investor base and a broader product range, with commodities trading in India still at an early stage compared with other markets and securities. “The commodity trading market in India is in very early stages and has room to increase multifold from here,” the report said, citing factors including rising retail and institutional participation, greater hedging needs and an expanding basket of commodities.
Rising Investor Participation
Investor participation has already increased, with MCX’s traded client count rising to 2.1 million in FY26 from 0.9 million in FY24. However, the report said this remains significantly below participation in equities, indicating further scope for expansion.
New Products to Drive Growth
Macquarie also expects new products to support growth. Options notional turnover on MCX rose to around Rs 1,200 trillion in FY26, and the brokerage expects the exchange’s options notional turnover to reach about Rs 3,220 trillion by FY30. Smaller-ticket contracts, monthly expiries and bullion products are expected to support broader participation.
Market Position and Potential Headwinds
The report said MCX’s first-mover advantage has helped it maintain about 98 per cent market share, while its product expansion is gradually reducing dependence on traditional commodities such as bullion, crude oil and natural gas.However, Macquarie flagged a high base for growth after strong recent volumes, along with regulatory risks and the possibility of increased competition from the National Stock Exchange in commodities trading. It said the exchange’s EBITDA margin, at 71.5 per cent in FY26, was already “at or near the peak” of its margin potential, making future growth more dependent on revenue expansion. (ANI)(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianetnews Editorial staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)