Voting is going on for Maharashtra Assembly elections. The fate of 4136 candidates is at stake in all 288 assembly seats of the state, which will be decided by 9.70 crore voters. A close contest is being considered between the BJP-led NDA alliance (Mahayuti) and the Congress-led India Alliance (Maha Vikas Aghadi). This time the assembly elections are not only a fight for power for both the alliances but also for their political survival and identity.
A lot has changed in Maharashtra politics in five years. Shiv Sena and NCP have divided into two factions and seem to be pitted against each other. BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are part of the grand alliance, while Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (S) are seen standing in the Mahavikas Aghadi.
Which party is contesting the elections on how many seats?
From the grand alliance, BJP is contesting the maximum number of 149 seats, while Shinde’s Shiv Sena is contesting on 81 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP is trying its luck on 59 seats. BJP has left four seats for smaller parties, in which Ramdas Athawale’s RPI, Yuva Swabhiman Party, Jan Surajya Shakti Party and RSP have fielded their candidates. Similarly, in Maha Vikas Aghadi, Congress is contesting on 101 assembly seats, Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) is contesting on 86 seats and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting on 95 seats. Apart from this, BSP-237, VBS-200, AIMIM-17 and SP are contesting on 9 seats.
There may be a close contest between Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, but no party has got a clear majority in the last six assembly elections. In such a situation, the role of small parties is important, but both Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi alliances are trying to form the government on their own. However, this time the political mood of Maharashtra is not completely the same, at some places Mahayuti has the upper hand and at some places Maha Vikas Aghadi is likely to get an edge. This time there seems to be a seat wise fight. In such a situation, which factor is working with whom?
Which factor is in favor of Maha Vikas Aghadi?
The biggest factor in favor of Maha Vikas Aghadi is the results of the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra held four months ago. Out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, Maha Vikas Aghadi had managed to win 31 seats while Mahayuti was limited to 17 seats. Congress won 13 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) 9 and NCP (S) 8 seats. Congress has increased from one seat to 13, Sharad Pawar’s party has increased from 3 to 8, while BJP has decreased from 23 seats to 9. In this way, Mahavikas Aghadi had lead on approximately 160 assembly seats while Mahayuti had lead on 128 seats. If the voting pattern in assembly elections remains like that of Lok Sabha, then Maha Vikas Aghadi will be defeated.
sympathy stakes
The division of Shiv Sena and NCP in Maharashtra is also a factor. By rebelling against Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde had taken power along with Shiv Sena in his name. Similarly, Ajit Pawar had also snatched NCP from the hands of Sharad Pawar. Due to this, sympathy arose among the people towards Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. This sentiment was clearly visible in the Lok Sabha elections and in the Assembly elections also, Uddhav and Sharad Pawar have played the victim card. The bet of sympathy is being considered a big election trump card for Maha Vikas Aghadi.
Muslim and Dalit Chemistry
Maha Vikas Aghadi’s political chemistry of Maratha, Muslim and Dalit has been a hit in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. On the basis of this social engineering, Maha Vikas Aghadi has once again entered the elections. The issue of Maratha reservation and Constitution was effective and efforts are being made to repeat it again. Apart from this, Rahul Gandhi had kept the issue of caste census and social justice intact during the entire election campaign. In such a situation, the alliance of Dalit-Muslim-Maratha can play an important role for Maha Vikas Aghadi.
Sharad Pawar is the uncrowned king of Maharashtra politics, his popularity is in the entire state. In this way, Uddhav Thackeray has the political legacy of his father Balasaheb Thackeray. Maha Vikas Aghadi does not have any leader of the political stature of Uddhav and Sharad Pawar. Maha Vikas Aghadi can get political benefit from this in the elections. Thackeray and Pawar factors are considered very important in Maharashtra, the Congress has decided to take full advantage of it.
Which factors are important in favor of Mahayuti?
BJP knows very well that it cannot win the political battle of Maharashtra on its own. In such a situation, BJP has entered the elections in alliance with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, which is known as Mahayuti. In this way, BJP has entered the elections with a big alliance, has also learned a lesson from the defeat in the Lok Sabha and has aggressively promoted populist plans. Efforts have been made to woo women voters through Ladli Brahmin Yojana. Mahayuti propagated that changing the government could deepen the crisis on all the benefits. Ladli Brahmin Yojana, which provides Rs 1,500 every month to more than 2 crore women, is being considered an important factor.
The victory in Haryana Assembly elections can become an important factor for Mahayuti. Only after this victory, the morale of BJP and its allies became high. Amit Shah had taken over the election command of Maharashtra and by holding continuous meetings, he has worked to strengthen the party at the grassroots level and correct the political equations. Mahayuti can benefit from this in the assembly elections.
Special focus on OBC
BJP has also made efforts to improve the caste equation that was disturbed in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP has specially focused on its core vote bank OBC and made every effort to unite the Hindu votes divided among castes. CM Yogi set the narrative of ‘Katoge to Batoge’ while PM Modi gave the slogan of ‘If you are united, you are safe’. Not only this, BJP has made efforts to spoil the equation of Maha Vikas Aghadi through vote jihad. When the agenda of Hindutva was set, the move was made to garner Dalit votes also. Mahayuti has termed claims like the Constitution is in danger as baseless.
In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, Mahayuti has not declared any leader as the CM face and has not entered the electoral fray. Eknath Shinde is definitely the CM, but Amit Shah had made it clear during the elections itself that the decision on the new CM will be taken after the results are declared. Along with this, the narrative being created by the opposition about Devendra Fadnavis becoming the CM was also ended. There was also a danger that Fadnavis or Shinde would face loss in contesting elections. In this way the CM’s speculations were rejected, which may benefit the Mahayuti.
