Leeds United turn back to Premier League survival duties against already relegated Burnley, days after a narrow FA Cup exit to Chelsea at Wembley Stadium.
The 1-0 defeat ended Leeds United’s hopes of lifting the trophy for the first time since 1972, but the focus now shifts to securing safety.
Daniel Farke’s team sit six points above 18th-placed Tottenham, with four league fixtures left, starting with Burnley at Elland Road. The Opta supercomputer currently rates Leeds United’s relegation chance at only 1.3%, yet the squad treats every game as crucial in the tight battle.
Leeds United approach this match unbeaten in five Premier League games, with two wins and three draws. Across their last three league fixtures, Leeds United have collected seven points and scored seven goals, matching their previous eight-game points total and already surpassing that earlier goal output.
This will be the sixth time Leeds United face a side already relegated from the Premier League, and the first such meeting since playing West Brom in May 2021. Leeds United won all five previous games in that situation, with a combined score of 18-3, which underlines their strong record in similar scenarios.
However, Leeds United have not scored in any of their last three league meetings with Burnley, after never previously going successive games without a goal against the Clarets. Burnley, meanwhile, can complete only a third league double over Leeds United, having last achieved this in 2013-14, and before that in 1926-27.
OPTA place Leeds United as clear favourites in this fixture, based on current performance levels and historical data. The model assigns a win probability above 60% for the home side, with a much lower figure for Burnley and a smaller chance of a draw compared with a Leeds United victory.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains a central attacking figure for Leeds United heading into this match. Of all players with at least 40 Premier League shots this season, Calvert-Lewin has attempted the highest share of efforts first time, with 79% of attempts, or 53 of 67, struck without controlling.
Calvert-Lewin has scored 11 league goals this term, which stands as the striker’s third-best Premier League campaign. The forward previously hit 16 goals during the 2020-21 season and 13 in 2019-20, so this year’s tally keeps Calvert-Lewin close to those earlier standards.
Burnley’s main attacking threat remains Zian Flemming, who has scored nine Premier League goals this season despite the team’s struggles. The last Burnley player to reach double figures was Chris Wood, with 12 in 2020-21, while Danny Ings managed 11 in 2014-15, during another relegation season.
Leeds United vs Burnley captain and goalkeeper views
Leeds United captain Ethan Ampadu insists the squad’s belief remains strong as the run-in begins. Ampadu told LUTV: “We go into every single game with that confidence that we can play, we can show our levels,” and added that lessons from recent matches must guide the remaining fixtures.
Ampadu reflected on the Wembley experience and the squad’s original cup ambitions. “I dont think [it is] anyones fault but it is just a lesson to learn to go into these next four [games].” “Our aim, of course, was to go as far as we can in the FA Cup, take it round by round.”
Ampadu accepted the disappointment but quickly re-stated the club’s main objective. “Once you are here, you want to get into the final, but we have got the Premier League and we want to survive.” “And we have full confidence if we play like we have been in the last few weeks that we can achieve that.”
The Leeds United captain also highlighted the importance of unity inside the dressing room for the decisive period. “So, I think we shall get behind each other as we will and push these last four.” The leadership group now tries to turn the frustration from the Chelsea defeat into energy for league performances.
Burnley’s relegation was confirmed after a 1-0 defeat against Manchester City, leaving the final four games about pride. Across this Premier League season, Burnley have averaged 9.1 shots per match and three shots on target, both their lowest figures across any top-flight campaign.
Goalkeeper Martin Dubravka expressed a mix of frustration and resolve after relegation was sealed. “Im disappointed. We wanted to stay in the league but unfortunately, we didnt do it,” said the Burnley goalkeeper. “The start of the season was a bit tricky I would say. Playing against top teams, we didnt pick up the points, and you need the points to stay up.”
Dubravka underlined how close Burnley came in several fixtures before falling short. “We were so close on a few occasions, but we didnt deliver. We need to give everything; theres still four games to play. We need to give something to the fans because they support us every week. We want to give back to them for the remaining games.”
Burnley have won only one of their last 25 Premier League matches, drawing seven and losing 17, with that single victory a 3-2 success over Crystal Palace in February. Nine of Burnley’s last 13 league points have come away from home, giving some encouragement ahead of the visit to Leeds United.
Leeds United now balance confidence from their unbeaten league run with awareness of their recent scoring issues against Burnley. With survival still not mathematically secure and Burnley eager to respond to relegation disappointment, the game at Elland Road carries importance for both sets of players and supporters.