Manchester City host Aston Villa on Sunday in a low-pressure finale that doubles as John Stones’ farewell, while the visitors arrive as Europa League champions and still shaping the Premier League’s final Champions League spots.
Stones departs after a decade that brings 17 trophies under Pep Guardiola, including six Premier League titles and the 2023 Champions League, with the 31-year-old leaving on a free transfer before the 2026-27 season alongside Bernardo Silva.
City’s 1-1 draw with Bournemouth on Tuesday confirms Arsenal as champions, so Guardiola’s side approach matchday 38 with pride and records at stake, while Villa, fresh from Wednesday’s 3-0 Europa League final victory over Freiburg, are guaranteed Champions League football but can still finish either fourth or fifth.
If Unai Emery’s team end the campaign in fifth place, which only happens if Villa lose and Liverpool beat Brentford at Anfield, the Premier League’s extra Champions League berth then passes to whichever of Bournemouth or Brighton secure sixth position.
The Opta supercomputer strongly backs a Manchester City victory despite the title race being settled and Villa still celebrating, with the model rating City at 71.4 per cent to win, Villa at 12.3 per cent and a draw at 16.3 per cent.
City’s dominance at home to Villa underpins those numbers, as Guardiola’s side have claimed 19 wins from their last 20 Premier League home meetings with Villa, including 15 victories in succession since a 2-0 defeat in April 2007.
Guardiola’s teams also tend to finish strongly, having won their last league fixture in eight of nine Premier League seasons, the sole failure being a defeat at Brentford in 2022-23, while City have triumphed in their last six campaigns that conclude at the Etihad Stadium.
Villa’s record in final-day games is far less positive, as the club have lost their last Premier League match of the season 16 times, more often than any other side, including a 3-2 defeat at City in 2021-22.
| Outcome | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 71.4% |
| Aston Villa win | 12.3% |
| Draw | 16.3% |
Manchester City vs Aston Villa focus on John Stones
Stones joined from Everton in 2016 for £50m as one of Guardiola’s early arrivals, and the defender’s 179 Premier League outings place Stones joint-17th in the club’s all-time list, with the chance to move clear of Micah Richards if selected against Villa.
Injuries have restricted Stones in recent years, yet the defender remains central to this era, appearing in 17 of the 20 trophies lifted during Guardiola’s reign, at a time when reports also suggest the manager may soon decide to leave Manchester City.
In a farewell interview with the club’s media channels, Stones reflected on what the last decade has meant, saying: “I honestly could never have dreamt of doing the things that I’ve done or to the magnitude of what we’ve done and how we’ve done it. If you’d said to me before I came here, ‘you’re going to do all these things’, I wouldn’t even have thought half would be possible. It’s been a rollercoaster. You can look at it like that, and everything has ups and downs and good things, bad things. But to live out all my dreams and all my goals and all the things that I set out to achieve as a player and live as a player… doing that has just been a dream. The memories that I’ve got with absolutely everyone, not just the players, the staff, the fans, the guys that we all see on a daily basis. It’s not sunk in yet, but when I leave I think it will and it’ll hit me.”
Manchester City vs Aston Villa players to watch
Erling Haaland leads the Premier League scoring chart with 27 goals before the final round, and the striker is set for a third Golden Boot in four seasons, which would make Haaland the fifth player to claim the award at least three times.
Only Thierry Henry and Mohamed Salah have won the Golden Boot more often, with four each, while Alan Shearer and Harry Kane also have three, so Haaland now stands alongside that elite group if the Norwegian finishes top again.
Ollie Watkins arrives at the Etihad in rich form, involved in eight goals across the last nine league matches, with six goals and two assists in that spell, just one fewer goal involvement than across Watkins’ opening 29 Premier League games this season.
Sunday’s fixture therefore blends celebration and competition, with City aiming to close an era under Guardiola and bid farewell to Stones on a positive note, while Villa look to extend momentum from European success and protect a strong league position that also directly affects Bournemouth and Brighton.