In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, there seems to be a direct contest between the Congress-led India Alliance (Maha Vikas Aghadi) and the BJP-led NDA (Mahayuti). Out of the total 288 seats in the state, about a quarter of the assembly seats can prove to be the turning point for power. In the last elections, the difference between victory and defeat on 73 assembly seats was less than ten thousand votes. In such a situation, if some votes are shifted on these seats, the whole game can go wrong, due to which these seats are scaring for some and giving hope to others.
The nomination round for Maharashtra Assembly elections is going on and the last date for filing nominations is 29 October. This time the nature of both the alliances has completely changed. The BJP-led NDA is accompanied by Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, while the Congress-led India alliance is accompanied by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP(S). Apart from this, everyone from Prakash Ambedkar’s party to Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Raj Thackeray’s MNS are trying their luck in the political battle of Maharashtra.
Equation of 73 seats with low margin
In the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, BJP and Shiv Sena fought together while Congress and NCP fought together. In the last elections, the margin of victory and defeat on five seats was less than one thousand votes, while on four seats the margin of victory and defeat was between one thousand to 2 thousand votes. The difference between victory and defeat on 28 seats was between 2 thousand and 5 thousand. There were 36 seats where there was a difference of five to 10 thousand votes.
Due to the way the political situation is developing regarding the assembly elections, all political power has rested on 73 seats with low margins in the state. The victory margin in the last election on these 73 seats was less than 10,000 votes, where manipulation of a few votes would change the game of power. If we look at the results of the last elections, out of 73 seats with low margins, BJP is in control of 28 seats. NCP won 15 seats, Congress won 12 seats and Shiv Sena won 5 seats. Apart from this, 13 seats were won by others and independents.
Five seats with margin of less than one thousand
In the 2019 assembly elections, the difference between victory and defeat on five seats was less than one thousand votes. These seats were Chandivali, Arjuni-Morgaon, Daund, Sangola and Kopargaon. Shiv Sena and NCP won two seats each while BJP won one seat. Shiv Sena’s Dilip Bhausaheb Lande won the Chandivali seat by only 409 votes. NCP’s Chandrikapure Manohar Govardhan won the Arjuni-Morgaon seat by 718 votes. BJP’s Rahul Shubhasrao had won the Daund assembly seat by 746 votes. Shahjibapu Rajaram Patil of Shiv Sena became MLA from Sangola seat of Solapur district with 768 votes. Apart from this, NCP’s Ashutosh Ashokrao Kale had won the Kopargaon seat by only 822 votes.
Seat with difference of one to two thousand votes
In the last elections, there was a difference of between one thousand and two thousand votes in four assembly seats of Maharashtra. These seats are Bhiwandi East, Murtijapur, Muktainagar and Beed. SP’s Raees Shaikh had won the Bhiwandi East seat by 1314 votes. BJP’s Harish Pimple had won the Murtijapur seat by 1910 votes. Independent Chandrakant Nimba Patil had won the Muktai Nagar seat by 1957 votes. NCP’s Sandeep Ravindra Srisagar was elected MLA from Beed seat by winning by 1984 votes. In this way, out of four seats with margins of 1,000 to 2,000, SP, BJP, NCP and Independent had won one seat each.
Seats with margin of less than Rs 5,000
There have been 28 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, where the margin of victory or defeat was between 2 thousand to 5 thousand votes. These seats are Dhule, Nevasa, Ramtek, Bhokardan, Pusad, Hadgaon, Bhokar, Nayagaon, Deglar, Mukhed, Udgir, Ahmedpur, Solapur Central, Shirol, Karad North, Karad South, Sangola, Mahadi, Pune Cantt, Maval, Chembur, Chandivali, Majalgaon, Bhandup, Malad West, Dindosi, Nashik Central, Dahanu and Dhule City are constituencies.
In 2019, among the seats with a difference of 2 thousand to 5 thousand, BJP had managed to win 12 seats while NCP had won six seats. Congress had captured four seats while Shiv Sena was successful in winning two seats. Apart from this, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party had won one seat in Dhule, while Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, CPI and Independent had won one seat each.
Seats with a difference of five to ten thousand
In the last assembly elections in Maharashtra, the difference between victory and defeat on 35 seats was between five thousand to 10 thousand votes. These seats – Sahada, Sakri, Akota, Amalner, Chikhali, Sinkhed Raja, Dhamangaon Railway, Achalapur, Morsi, Nagpur West, Tumsar, Sakoli, Amgaon, Chimur, Ralegaon, Pusad, Varsoya, Umarkhed, Basmath, Kalwan, Nashik West, Kalyan. Rural, Bandra East, Uran, Junar, Bhor, Shivajinagar, Pune Cantt, Gevrai, Karmala, Koregaon, Karad Dakshin, Hatkangale and Sangli constituencies.
In 2019, out of the seats where the win-loss margin was between 5 to 10 thousand, BJP won 14 seats and Congress won eight seats. Six seats were won by NCP, three seats were won by Independents, one seat was won by Shiv Sena and three seats were won by other candidates. In this way the political equation of seats with low margins can be understood.
Election game will change due to changed equation
The political equation of Maharashtra has changed a lot this time as compared to the last elections. The form of alliance is different, so after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a lot of water has flowed from Godavari. After the defeat, the NDA alliance has tried to win the hearts of the voters by opening the treasury for free government schemes, while the India alliance i.e. Maha Vikas Aghadi has also opened all its doors. The challenge before the BJP leadership are the seats of Marathwada, Western Maharashtra and Mumbai, where the India Alliance had taken the lead in the Lok Sabha elections. During the Lok Sabha elections, there was a fierce fight between the two alliances on the seats with low margins in the 2019 assembly elections.
Although voting patterns are different in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, the vote figures give an indication of the upcoming results. In 2019, on 73 seats where the victory-defeat margin was less than ten thousand votes, the whole game changes due to the movement of a few votes here and there. This time the political situation has changed in the Maharashtra assembly elections, earlier where the main contest was between four parties of two alliances, now there are 6 parties and two alliances. In such a situation, the low margin seat is scaring some people and raising hopes of others. In such a situation, it remains to be seen what will be the results this time?
