Despite recent weakness, a JP Morgan report forecasts gold prices to hit record highs of $6,000/oz by late 2026, driven by safe-haven demand, inflation concerns, and strong central bank buying, particularly from China.
Gold prices could climb to fresh record highs by the end of 2026 despite recent weakness in investor interest and a period of sideways trading, according to a latest commodities research report by JP Morgan Global Research.
The report said gold is expected to average USD 6,000 per ounce in the final quarter of 2026, with prices potentially rising further to USD 6,300 per ounce by the end of 2027. “The 2026 and 2027 outlook for gold prices remains ahead of current levels, with JP Morgan Global Research analysts expecting gold to push $6,000/oz by year end, and $6,300/oz a possibility for 2027,” the report said.
Despite Current Market Weakness
The outlook comes even as gold prices have lost momentum in recent months. According to the report, spot gold prices rallied strongly at the start of 2026 before cooling in March and recently touching an intra-year low of USD 4,170 per ounce.
JP Morgan said uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments and monetary policy continues to shape the outlook for the precious metal. “Future demand and price stability seem to depend on the resolution of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and on Fed policy – neither of which are certain at this time,” the report noted.
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals at JP Morgan, said investor enthusiasm for gold has moderated for now. “Gold is stuck in a bit of a technical no-man’s land, trudging above the 200-day moving average around $4,340/oz and capped for now below the 50-day moving average at $4,730/oz,” Shearer said. “Amid this sideways plod, and with growing worries that the Fed might have to respond to energy-driven inflation with hikes, gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” he added.
Long-Term Drivers Intact
Despite that, the report said the factors that have driven strong gold demand over the past few years remain largely intact. According to JP Morgan, concerns over higher inflation, erosion of purchasing power, US fiscal pressures, geopolitical fragmentation and policy uncertainty continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Central Bank Buying Remains Strong
The report also highlighted the role of central banks, which have been a key driver of gold’s rally in recent years. While official data showed central banks sold 129 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 and reported net purchases of only 16 tonnes, JP Morgan said alternative estimates suggest actual buying activity remained much stronger.
Citing World Gold Council estimates based on over-the-counter market data and Swiss refinery flows, the report said gold purchases in the first quarter of 2026 may have reached 244 tonnes, up from 208 tonnes in the previous quarter.
China Leads Gold Accumulation
China appears to be one of the major sources of demand, according to the report. “Chinese net imports of gold have inflected higher, coming in at 317 tons in the first quarter of 2026, up by nearly three times compared to the previous quarter,” Shearer said.
“Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China has ramped up its reported purchases, from around a one-ton-per-month pace for the six months through February to five tons in March and eight tons in April,” he added. The report said China’s gold accumulation appears to be part of a broader strategy to diversify reserves and strengthen the renminbi’s position as an alternative reserve currency. (ANI)
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