On July 10, a huge fall in the prices of gold has been recorded from the bullion market to the futures market. In the Indian market, the price of 10 grams of gold on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has fallen to Rs 800. Not only in India, but also in the international market, the shine of the yellow metal has faded. The main reasons behind this huge fall are the increasing tension between America and Iran, the rise in crude oil and the strict policies of the US Federal Reserve.
Crude oil fire spoils the game
These days, geopolitical tension between America and Iran has increased considerably. Due to this tension, there has been a sudden huge jump in the prices of crude oil in the global market. Whenever crude oil becomes expensive, there is a danger of inflation increasing.
To keep inflation under control, the American Central Bank i.e. Federal Reserve has to increase its interest rates. There is a simple rule of economics that whenever bank interest rates increase, gold becomes less attractive for investors. This is the reason why gold, which was rising rapidly last week, came under pressure this week and a total decline of 1.4 percent was recorded.
Great buying opportunity amid the decline?
According to market experts, this decline in prices can also become an opportunity for investors. According to Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst of KCM Trade, after the rise of July 9, the market is currently going through a phase of consolidation. The US-Iran tension has created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market, due to which traders are hesitant in investing money. If the prices of crude oil remain at its current level, then people can buy heavily at lower levels in this fall. But, if crude oil becomes more expensive, the fear of inflation may push gold prices further down.
Tension increased due to the tough stance of the US Federal Reserve
Another worrying news for gold investors has come from America. The minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Reserve have recently been released. These documents clearly show that the US Reserve Bank is still very worried about the high level of inflation. This simply means that the Federal Reserve is in no mood to cut interest rates in the coming time, rather it can adopt strict policies. If this happens, further decline in gold prices may be seen.
Due to this reason, spot gold in the international market slipped 0.1 percent to $ 4,115.79 an ounce. At the same time, American gold future for August delivery also fell by 0.4 percent to $ 4,124.90 an ounce. In India too, gold future on MCX is trading at the level of Rs 1,44,500 per 10 grams with a fall of 0.55 percent (Rs 800).
Giant bank HSBC reduced estimates
In view of all these global circumstances, HSBC, one of the largest banks in the world, has changed its estimate regarding the future prices of gold. Due to the strengthening dollar and aggressive policies of the Federal Reserve, the bank has made a big cut in its previous estimates.
According to the new report, the average price of gold for the year 2026 is now estimated to be $ 4,560 per ounce, which was earlier reported to be $ 4,864. Similarly, the estimate for 2027 has also been reduced from $5,000 to $4,925 per ounce. HSBC believes that in the remaining months of this year, gold will continue to fluctuate in the range of $ 3,800 to 4,700 per ounce. However, by the end of the year it may touch the level of $ 4,750 and by the end of next year it may touch the level of $ 5,025 per ounce.
