There is no danger of formation or deterioration of power due to the by-elections being held on 9 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh, but even then the question of reputation of political parties remains. BJP wants to settle the score of defeat in 2024 Lok Sabha through by-elections, while SP is fighting to maintain its political atmosphere. In this way, the credibility of CM Yogi Adityanath to SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary and BSP chief Mayawati is at stake. This is the reason why the UP by-election fight has become the semi-final of 2027.
In the UP by-elections, voting is to be held on November 13 in Karhal, Mirapur, Ghaziabad, Khair, Sisamau, Kundarki, Katehari, Majhwan and Phulpur assembly seats. Of the seats in the state where elections are being held, there were SP MLAs on four seats and BJP MLAs on three seats. Apart from this, there were MLAs from RLD on one seat and MLAs from Nishad Party on one seat. SP and BSP have fielded their candidates on all 9 seats, while BJP is trying its luck on 8 seats and its ally RLD is contesting on one seat.
CM Yogi’s litmus test in by-elections
Whether BJP wins or loses the Uttar Pradesh by-elections, in both the cases the credit will go to CM Yogi Adityanath. That is why the by-election is considered very important for CM Yogi. After the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP does not want to lose the by-elections under any circumstances. In such a situation, he himself has taken the responsibility of the by-election. BJP is setting its own aggressive election campaign strategy. CM Yogi faces the challenge of winning three seats held by BJP as well as two seats held by allies. Apart from this, there is a challenge to bloom lotus on the seats held by SP.
BJP’s track record of winning by-elections while in power in the state has not been very good. Apart from this, the way SP has made the by-election the semi-final of 2027 elections, the credibility of CM Yogi Adityanath is at stake. The result of UP by-election will be seen directly as CM Yogi’s hold on UP. If BJP loses then questions will be raised on CM Yogi. The by-election before the 2027 assembly elections is no less than a litmus test for them. Apart from this, the responsibility of connecting the Dalit-backward vote bank which has slipped away from the party is also on him.
Big test for Akhilesh Yadav
By winning 37 seats in UP in the Lok Sabha elections, SP has become the number one party in the state. Congress has completely left the by-election field for SP and SP has fielded its candidates on all the 9 seats. SP has fielded four Muslim, three OBC and two Dalit candidates and has played on the PDA i.e. Backward, Dalit and Minority formula. SP has won the battle of Lok Sabha elections with this strategy. If SP succeeds in winning more seats in the by-elections after the walkover of Congress, then it will be an opportunity for Akhilesh Yadav to sharpen the PDA formula as well as create an atmosphere for 2027.
For Akhilesh Yadav, in the by-elections, SP aims to maintain its dominance on four seats – Karhal, Katehari, Sisamau and Kundarki. In 2022, SP had left Meerapur seat for RLD. In this way, Akhilesh faces the challenge of winning as many seats as possible. While in opposition, SP has lost seats like Rampur and Azamgarh, but was successful in winning Ghosi and Mainpuri seats. In this way, by winning the by-election, Akhilesh will try to change the political environment in his favor and if he loses, then the color of victory in 2024 will fade.
Mayawati will be tested in the by-elections
The political graph of BSP is falling day by day. While BSP was limited to one seat in the 2022 assembly elections, its account has not even been opened in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BSP’s vote share has also fallen to below 10 percent in UP. The non-Jatav Dalit vote bank has been continuously moving away from the BSP, now its core Jatav vote bank is also moving away. In such a situation, the by-election became very important for BSP. BSP has contested the by-elections after a long time and its last victory in the by-elections was in 2010. In this way, BSP faces the challenge of breaking 14 years of political exile.
Of the 9 assembly seats in the state where by-elections are being held, it has been winning Meerapur, Ghaziabad, Majhwan, Khair, Katehari and Phulpur seats. In such a situation, BSP has elections in the areas of its political influence, due to which it has not pulled back from contesting the by-elections. BSP has made its political moves in the by-elections. They have fielded two Muslims, three Brahmins, one Dalit, one Thakur and two OBC candidates. UP by-election is being considered as semi-final and hence, it is being considered very important for BSP. If BSP loses the by-elections then its atmosphere will be even more down.
Challenge to prove before Jayant Chaudhary
Even though the test of Union Minister and RLD chief Jayant Choudhary is on Meerapur Assembly seat, the challenge is to transfer Jat votes in favor of BJP. In 2022, RLD was successful in winning Meerapur seat with the support of SP, but this time RLD has an alliance with BJP. The way Jayant has conducted a political experiment in Meerapur by fielding a candidate from Pal community instead of Jat and Gurjar, the contest is not easy for RLD. In such a situation, RLD has put in all its strength to win the Meerapur seat.
RLD chief Jayant Choudhary’s challenge is to prove himself in Meerapur seat, while in Khair and Kundarki seats the challenge is to get Jat votes in favor of BJP. Well, SP has fielded Charu Kane as its candidate, who is married to a Jat family. In such a situation, there is a danger of Jat votes getting scattered for BJP, while the challenge is to get Jat votes in favor of BJP in Kundarki and Ghaziabad seats. In 2024, Jayant Chaudhary was successful in winning both the seats of his quota by forming an alliance with BJP, but could not transfer the Jat votes on other seats. Due to this, BJP leaders also raised questions on him. In such a situation, now it has to be seen how Jayant performs in the by-elections?
