share market
There may be a lot of ups and downs in the stock market next week. There is a reason for that too. Next week, apart from geo-political tension, crude oil prices, movement of rupee and quarterly results, election results of 5 states will also be known. Which can create a lot of turmoil in the stock market. The results of Bengal are considered very important in the election results of 5 states. Most of the exit polls have predicted the formation of BJP government.
However, in the last few years, exit poll predictions regarding Bengal have proved wrong. Be it the assembly elections of 2021, or the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. In whose results TMC got a good lead. However, experts believe that if BJP is seen forming the government in Bengal, then the stock market may see a rise of 5 percent or more. Let us discuss in detail what kind of action can be seen in the stock market next week…
Assembly election results
Hariprasad K, founder and research analyst at Livelong Wealth, said the most immediate factor will be the results of assembly elections in key states. Investors are closely watching whether the ruling party at the Center can defeat the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and make meaningful inroads in opposition-ruled Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently has limited presence. Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Limited, said that this week the markets will initially react to the results of the state assembly elections, especially in West Bengal, which may lead to fluctuations for 1-2 days.
Will there be no peace talks on Iran war?
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he is not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal for talks related to the current conflict. At the same time, Iran’s Foreign Minister indicated that if America changes its viewpoint, then Tehran is ready for diplomacy. Trump’s comments suggest that the two-month-long conflict is likely to remain stalemated, even as he tries to end the war – a war that remains largely unpopular among Americans.
In a speech in Florida later Friday, he said the US would not end its confrontation with Iran prematurely. He warned that retreating would mean facing the same problem again in a few years. He reiterated that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. Besides, the pressure on Tehran to remove its control over the Strait of Hormuz is also increasing. It is a major sea route, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas flows have been disrupted during the current conflict.
Oil prices cross $100
On Friday, there was a huge fall in the futures prices of crude oil from the highest level of 4 years. The reason for this was that Iran had proposed to resume talks with America. However, oil prices remained headed for weekly gains as Tehran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy maintained sanctions on Iranian crude exports.
Brent crude for July delivery closed at $108.17 per barrel, a decline of $2.23 (or 2.02%). Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $101.94, down $3.13 (or 2.98%). Nuwama Institutional Equities reported that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20 million barrels of oil passes per day—could push crude oil prices to the $110,150 range.
fourth quarter earnings
Kotak Mahindra Bank and FMCG major DMart released their earnings figures for the March quarter on Saturday. Avenue Supermarts, the company that runs DMart, on Saturday reported a net profit of Rs 656.6 crore for the March quarter of FY26. This is an increase of 19 percent compared to Rs 550.90 crore recorded in the same quarter of the last financial year. This net profit belongs to the shareholders of the company.
Kotak Mahindra Bank on Saturday reported a net profit of Rs 4,026.55 crore for the March quarter of FY26. This is an increase of 13.3 percent compared to Rs 3,552 crore recorded in the same quarter of the last financial year. Net interest income (NII) increased by 8.1 per cent year-on-year to Rs 7,876 crore, compared to Rs 7,284 crore in the same quarter last year.
Rupee at record low
On Thursday, the Indian rupee fell to its lowest ever level of Rs 95.33. Investors were very concerned about the economic risks arising from the sudden surge in crude oil prices (which have reached the highest level in 2022). With oil prices rising to $125 and above, concerns about the balance of inflation and economic growth in India have increased.
Immediate resistance for the rupee lies between Rs 95 and Rs 95.20. If the rupee continues to remain above this range, it may fall to its new all-time low. On the other hand, Rs 94.50 level will act as immediate support, whereas if the rupee remains stable in the same range in the near future, then Rs 94.30 to Rs 94 level will be considered a strong support zone.
For the near future, the trend of the rupee is cautious and inclined towards bullish. It is being supported by the continued demand for the dollar, although any reduction in geopolitical tensions may provide stability to the rupee for some time.
