The World Meteorological Organization has predicted the effect of El Nino to last from August to November.
El Nino has become active. Its direct impact is going to be felt across the world. Even India will not be able to escape from this. No country has any way to stop it. Only caution is the best way of prevention. Whatever he does, he will do it at the level of violence. Meaning, if it rains, it will rain heavily. If it doesn’t happen then it will happen. It means clearly that it will be very hot. The World Meteorological Organization has predicted the effect of El Nino to last from August to November. In India, farmers need more monsoon rains for their crops from June to September. In such a situation, where there is rain, there will be damage to the crops where there will be no rain or it will be less. The biggest concern is about Central India, North-West India and Western India. These may include some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.
There is a possibility of drought like situation in large parts of India, but it would not be right to call it a nationwide drought right now. Declaring drought is done through the prescribed procedure of the government and weather agencies. For this, many indicators like lack of rain, condition of crops, soil moisture, level of reservoirs and ground water are seen. Only then is drought declared. At present, the concern has increased because there are signs of the monsoon being weak.
Meteorologists worried about distribution of rain
The India Meteorological Department has released an updated long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon from June to September 2026. According to the latest information released by the Meteorological Department, monsoon has extended to Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and some other parts of Bihar, yet there is concern about the total distribution of rain.
El Nino will also affect rainfall. Photo: PTI
What is the biggest reason for apprehension?
The main reason for this concern is El Nino. El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon associated with the Pacific Ocean. In this, the water of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than normal. It affects the weather of the whole world. Indian monsoon may weaken if El Nino is formed. This does not happen every time, but the risk increases.
The Indian monsoon brings moisture to the land by drawing moisture from the sea. El Nino changes this moisture and air flow. Due to this, less clouds are formed. There may be long gaps between rains. Long dry spells may occur in some areas. America’s official agency NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an advisory related to El-Nino on June 11, 2026. According to him, El Nino conditions are present. The surface temperature in the sea area affected by El Nino is said to be about 0.7 degrees above normal.
The probability of El Nino forming between June and August 2026 is more than 80 percent.
World Meteorological Organization also warned
The World Meteorological Organization has also warned. The organization said on June 2 that warm sea water is increasing El Nino. The probability of El Nino forming between June and August 2026 is more than 80 percent. The probability of it continuing till November is said to be 90 percent or more. For this reason the organization has warned that El Nino can increase global temperatures. Its effect can be seen in the form of drought, heavy rains and heatwave. The organization also said that there is a possibility of below normal rainfall in the monsoon of 2026 in South Asia. Signals are stronger in central areas.
Which regions are at greater risk in India?
The biggest concern is about Central India, North-West India and Western India. These may include some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. Areas with rain-fed farming are more sensitive. Central India is considered the core zone of monsoon. Major Kharif farming of the country is connected from here. If there is less rainfall here, crops, fodder, groundwater and reservoirs will be affected. Crops like paddy, pulses, maize, soybean, cotton and groundnut may be affected. Reports based on the forecast of the Meteorological Department also indicate that this time the total monsoon rainfall may be less than normal. If this happens, damage to the crops is certain.
The World Meteorological Organization has said that there is no direct evidence of climate change increasing the number of El Nino, Photo: PTI
What change is visible in the weather?
The discussion about drought has not started suddenly. There are many indications behind this. The first signal came from the sea. The temperature is rising in the Pacific Ocean. American agency has confirmed El Nino. The second signal is related to the forecast of monsoon. There is a possibility of less than normal rainfall in South Asia. The World Meteorological Organization has also given the same indication. The organization has predicted above normal temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. Excessive heat dries the soil moisture quickly. This increases pressure on the crop. The fourth sign is visible within India. Heat and heat wave conditions persisted in many parts of north-west and central India in June.
Is less rainfall the only cause of drought?
Drought is not caused by less rainfall alone. It is also very important for timely rains. If there is good rain in June and a long break in July-August, farming may be affected. If it rains heavily but in short duration, the water flows away. Moisture does not last in the soil, so distribution of rain is important. It is important for the farmer to know when the rain will come and for how long it will last. Even if the total rainfall is close to normal, rain at the wrong time can still cause damage.
Combination of El Nino and climate change
El Nino is a natural phenomenon. This has been coming before also. The World Meteorological Organization has said that there is no direct evidence that climate change will increase the number of El Nino, but a warming Earth could make its impact serious. Warm air holds more moisture and energy. Drought may be longer than this. There may be sudden heavy rain somewhere. That means the danger is double. On one hand there may be less rain. On the other hand, the weather can be more extreme.
Message for farmers and government
Preparation is very important at such times. Farmers should pay attention to local agricultural weather advisories. Low-water crops and drought-tolerant seeds should be considered. Measures to save moisture in the fields are necessary. Rain water harvesting is also important. Governments will have to make preparations at the district level. Arrangements for seeds, irrigation, fodder, drinking water and crop insurance will have to be made on time. Weather warning will have to reach the village quickly.
In this way, it can be said that there is a possibility of drought like situation in large parts of India. This fear is mainly due to El Nino. Warming of the Pacific Ocean can weaken the monsoon. Indications from the World Meteorological Organization, the American Agency, the Indian Meteorological Department indicate that the monsoon of 2026 may be challenging. Still the picture is not completely certain. Monsoon changes every month. There may be good rain in some areas, so preparation is more important than fear. Timely warning, water conservation and crop planning are the biggest protection.
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