stock market
On Friday, June 19, India’s benchmark equity indices – Sensex and Nifty 50 – snapped their five-day rising streak. The biggest reason for this was Accenture, which had reduced its revenue growth estimates. After that, there was a huge fall in IT stocks. Market sentiment was also affected by weak global market trends, withdrawal of selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and ongoing geopolitical concerns. The Sensex fell 607 points or 0.78 per cent to close at 76,802.90, while the Nifty 50 fell 154.90 points or 0.64 per cent to close at 24,013.10.
During intraday trading, the Sensex fell by more than 900 points to below the 76,500 level, while the Nifty 50 fell by more than 200 points and slipped below 23,950. The massive selloff came after a strong rally in the benchmark index, which had gained nearly 5% in the last five trading sessions.
Now the biggest question is which direction the stock market will take next week. According to the latest updates, an atmosphere of tension has once again arisen in the Middle East. Iran has once again ordered the closure of Hormuz. On the other hand, the attitude of foreign investors will also improve a lot. Secondly, the most important thing is that the price of crude oil will also be very important.
These 5 factors will decide the movement of the stock market
US-Iran peace agreement
Talks for a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran were set to begin in Switzerland on Sunday, with senior officials including US Vice President JD Vance expected to attend. Talks are continuing despite Iran’s new instructions to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The countries, which have long been adversaries, are coming to the negotiating table after separate clashes between Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon have delayed talks. The talks are taking place under the 60-day framework that was established under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Donald Trump during his visit to Paris on Wednesday, although the agreement also includes a provision to extend it if needed.
crude oil prices
Brent crude prices rose slightly on Friday, but are headed for a decline of about 8% for the week as concerns over supply disruptions eased following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, the market stance remained cautious after Iran’s conditions related to the use of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures rose 66 cents, or 0.53%, to $80.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 94 cents, or 1.23%, to $77.54 a barrel. Despite gains on the day, Brent was still down about 8% from a week ago, reflecting a sharp reduction in the supply-risk premium following the US-Iran agreement aimed at ending the conflict.
FII withdrawal
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree in the first fortnight of June, with heavy outflows recorded across sectors including financials, oil and gas, automobile, IT, FMCG and metals. FIIs remained net sellers during this period and pulled out Rs 40,486 crore from Indian equities. Earlier, there were net sales of Rs 46,888 crore in May and Rs 49,034 crore in April. Overall, FIIs have sold Indian shares worth more than Rs 2.74 lakh crore so far in 2026.
Selling pressure continued on the financial sector. FIIs sold shares worth Rs 11,263 crore in the first part of June. Earlier, there was a net outflow of Rs 23,141 crore in May and Rs 30,856 crore in April, making it the most sold sector by foreign investors.
rupee vs dollar
On Friday, the market mood deteriorated due to strengthening of dollar index and rise in crude oil prices, due to which the rupee lost a major part of its initial gains, but still closed 7 paise stronger at 94.33 against the US dollar. According to Forex market experts, the domestic currency started the day with strength due to expectations of acceleration in trade talks between India and America. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.30 per US dollar and remained in the range of 94.20 to 94.52 during the session. Ultimately it closed at 94.33, which shows an increase of 7 paise compared to the previous closing price.
gold prices
Gold prices remained under downward pressure after the US Federal Reserve expressed the possibility of increasing interest rates in 2026. This outlook strengthened the US dollar, making non-interest bearing assets like gold less attractive for investors. Due to the tough stance of the Fed (hawkish stance), large-scale profit-booking was also seen in the bullion market. According to Jatin Trivedi, Vice President, Commodity and Currency Research Analyst, LKP Securities, after the Fed’s policy announcement, in the last few sessions, COMEX gold has fallen significantly from $ 4375 to $ 4150, while MCX gold has fallen from around Rs 154000 to Rs 147200. Expectations of strengthening of the dollar and the possibility of interest rates rising are impacting the market mood.
What do experts say?
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, in the coming week the attention of investors is likely to be mainly focused on activities related to the US-Iran peace process. Ponmudi said news that US and Iranian negotiators are heading to Switzerland again for new talks – after previously scheduled talks were canceled – as well as the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire coming into force have rekindled hopes for a broader diplomatic breakthrough in the region. As a result, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments on the geopolitical front, and any further developments are expected to provide additional support to global risk sentiment.
