By-elections are being held on 9 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh. Of the nine seats in the state where by-elections are going on, four seats are considered Muslim dominated. Being a Muslim dominated seat, it is like a tough task for BJP. The situation was similar for BJP in Rampur also, where 55 percent of the voters were Muslims. BJP had created history by winning the Rampur seat for the first time and now on the same formula, the strategy of making ‘lotus’ bloom in Muslim dominated seats is visible.
The 9 seats in UP where elections are held include Kundarki, Ghaziabad, Khair, Meerapur, Karhal, Sisamau, Katehari, Majhwan and Phulpur assembly seats. If we look at the 2022 elections, SP had won four seats, while BJP had captured three seats. Apart from this, RLD and Nishad Party had won one seat each. Out of these 9 seats, Meerapur, Katehari, Kundarki, Sisamau and Phulpur are considered Muslim dominated seats. Of these, only Phulpur could be won by BJP in 2022, while three seats were won by the SP alliance.
There is no danger of a power game getting worse due to the results of the by-elections, but the political future of UP will definitely be decided. Due to the political setback that BJP faced in UP in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP is dreaming of winning 7-8 out of 9 seats in the by-elections. The biggest problem in BJP’s goal is to win on Muslim dominated seats because in Kundarki there are 62 percent Muslims, in Mirapur seat there are 45 percent, in Sisamau there are 50 percent and in Phulpur seat there are 30 percent Muslim voters. Apart from this, there are 45 thousand Muslim voters in Ghaziabad and around 55 thousand Muslim voters in Katehari.
What formula had BJP made?
BJP had created a conspiracy to register victory in Muslim dominated seats through Rampur formula. In 2022, SP MLA from Rampur Azam Khan had his membership canceled after he was sentenced to more than two years in a case. There are 55 percent Muslim voters in Rampur assembly seat. In such a situation, it was not easy for BJP to win this seat.
BJP had fielded Akash Saxena in Rampur by-election. BJP had made a move to keep its voters away from the polling booth and the opposition’s votes away from the polling booth. SP had alleged that they were not allowed to vote by keeping police guard outside the Muslim settlements in Rampur, due to which BJP was able to win the Rampur seat. After this, ‘Rampur Formula’ of by-election came into discussion.
What allegations did SP make?
Haji Rizwan, SP’s candidate from Kundarki assembly seat, alleged that the police administration has put up barricades outside Muslim settlements in the entire area so that Muslim voters cannot go to the booth. Not only this, Rizwan alleged that SP agents were not allowed to work at 250 booths. Haji Rizwan had an argument with the police when the police checked his ID card. In Sisamau too, there is a blockade outside Muslim settlements, while in Katehari, SP has alleged that Muslim voters are not being allowed to come to the booth.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has written a letter to the Election Commission saying that Muslim women wearing burqa should be checked not only by the police but also by polling agents. Apart from this, the state president of SP has continuously complained to the Election Commission that SP voters are being prevented from voting. The seats on which SP has complained include Sisamau, Meerapur, Kundarki and Katehri seats. Muslim voters play a decisive role in all these four seats.
How difficult is it for the BJP alliance to win?
Haji Rizwan, who is contesting from SP on Kundarki seat, has even alleged that the police is allowing only those voters to come to the booth, who have been given red slips by BJP candidate Ramveer Singh Thakur. Through this he is trying to convey that only BJP voters are being allowed to reach the booth and SP voters were not allowed to reach the booth. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has made serious allegations on by-election voting by tweeting the video of Haji Rizwan getting the police barricades removed.
Being Muslim dominated seats, winning Kundarki, Sisamau, Katehari and Meerapur seats is like chewing iron gram for the BJP alliance. In such a situation, BJP knows that victory cannot be achieved only on the basis of Hindu votes, hence, if it is trying to attract a section of Muslims with itself, then SP supporting booths are being accused of low voting. . Regarding Muslim voting pattern, it is believed that Muslims vote only to defeat BJP. This was the pattern in the 2022 elections and candidates from the Muslim community from BSP to Owaisi were rejected. Votes were cast outright in favor of SP and the same pattern followed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections also.
