In the politics of Uttar Pradesh, the political base of BSP, which once reached the heights of power through the Dalit-deprived and exploited society, is shrinking election after election. Limited to one seat in the UP Assembly and the BSP could not open its account even in the by-elections after the 2024 Lok Sabha. Not only this, in the by-elections, BSP could not even save the security deposit on six seats including Western UP, whereas it stood third on the seat of Purvanchal.
Chandrashekhar Azad’s party candidate has got more votes than BSP candidates in many seats of West UP. In such a situation, the political future of BSP seems to be in trouble. In such a situation, questions are being raised as to whose side will Mayawati’s political support base go?
Deposits also confiscated on many seats
While being in the opposition, Mayawati used to maintain distance from the by-elections, but to preserve her existence in the current politics, she had contested the by-elections. BSP had fielded its candidates on all the 9 assembly seats of UP. Earlier, BSP had also participated in the by-elections held on 5 assembly seats of the state during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but could not win even a single seat. This time, leave alone winning, Mayawati’s candidates failed to even save the Jamaat, while BSP has its political dominance on assembly seats like Majhwan, Katehari, Meerapur.
BSP lags behind Chandrashekhar’s party
Meerapur, Khair, Majhwan and Katehari seats in Uttar Pradesh have also been more favorable for BSP than SP. Despite this, BSP could not win. BSP candidate Shahnazar stood fifth in Meerapur seat. BSP has got only 3248 votes. On this seat, Chandrashekhar Azad’s party’s candidate Zahid Hussain stood third with 22661 votes. In this way, BSP got less votes than Azad Party and AIMIM.
BSP’s condition in Kundarki seat
BSP remained at fifth position in Kundarki assembly seat. BSP’s Rafatullah has got 1099 votes while Chandrashekhar Azad’s party candidate Chand Babu has got 14201 votes. Chandrashekhar and Owaisi have got more votes than BSP on this seat. In Ghaziabad, BSP was at third position while Singh Raj Jatav of SP was at second position. Well, BSP has got 13365 votes on the seat while Chandrashekhar Azad’s party has got 8269 votes at fourth place. In Karhal, BSP stood third and got less than 10 thousand votes. In Sisamau seat, BSP’s Virendra Kumar stood third with 1400 votes.
The grip on Dalit community is loosening
BSP stood third in Phulpur seat, BSP’s Jitendra Kumar Singh got 20342 votes. BSP candidate Amit Verma has got 41647 votes on Katehari assembly seat. Deepak Tiwari of BSP has got 34927 votes in Majhwan Assembly seat. BSP may have been successful in saving the deposits on all these three seats, but remained at the third position. This clearly shows that BSP chief Mayawati’s grip on the Dalit community is becoming loose.
Dalits went somewhere with SP and somewhere with BJP.
BSP may have been successful in saving the deposits on the seats of Purvanchal, but the way it suffered a crushing defeat in Western UP has raised many questions. BSP’s Dalit vote is now getting out of Mayawati’s grip and is looking for new political options. The Dalit voters of Western UP have separated from the BSP and are seen standing with the Muslim candidates of Chandrashekhar, but the way the BSP candidates remained limited to thousand-two thousand votes. In such a situation, Dalit voters have gone with BJP on many seats and have been seen standing with SP on Sisamau seat of Kanpur.
Vote share less than Congress
The political situation of UP has changed. Mayawati’s party’s account was not opened and its vote share was even lower than Congress’s vote share. Congress got 9.46 percent vote share after contesting on 17 Lok Sabha seats, while BSP got only 9.39 percent vote share after contesting on 79 seats. Dalit voters who shifted from BSP in the by-elections, on one side, some sections were seen standing with Chandrashekhar, while on some sections, they expressed their faith in BJP’s Ek Ho Safe.
New fight for Dalit votes
Out of the 9 seats in UP for which there are by-elections, BSP could not win even a single seat in the 2022 elections. In the 2022 assembly elections, the party had won only the Rasra assembly seat of Ballia, from where Uma Shankar Singh has become the MLA. There is not a single MP from BSP in the Lok Sabha. There was a challenge for BSP to open its account in the by-elections, but in this election also its hopes were dashed. The way Dalit votes are slipping out of Mayawati’s grip in election after election, a new battle for Dalit votes may be seen in the coming times, especially in Western UP.
All eyes on Dalit vote bank
Both BJP and SP are keeping an eye on BSP’s Dalit vote bank. Apart from this, Chandrashekhar Azad, who became Lok Sabha MP from Nagina, is already asserting his right on Dalit votes. Even though Chandrashekhar could not win even a single seat in the by-election, he has succeeded to a great extent in creating Dalit-Muslim equation by fielding Muslim candidates, because his candidate has got more votes than BSP on many seats. In such a situation, Chandrashekhar Azad will be seen working hard to garner Dalit votes in the coming times.
Will Mayawati be able to handle her core vote bank?
At the same time, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is already setting the agenda of his Dalit politics through the PDA formula. Dalits are continuously making efforts to consolidate votes and now after the by-elections they can move forward rapidly in this direction. Similarly, BJP is also making every possible effort to add Dalit votes. Due to the way BJP has succeeded in consolidating Dalit votes in many seats in the UP by-elections, it will engage in the mission of retaining Dalit votes with more strategies in the future. In such a situation, will it not be easy for BSP to retain its core vote bank?
