Analyst Ben Cowen changed his stance, saying he “certainly didn’t think” Bitcoin would take out its May high this year.
- Bitcoin has risen every month since June, though it remains below its October 1, 2025 level, according to data from Koyfin.
- Ben Cowen said Bitcoin’s cycle low may have come in July and that its break above the May high has shifted the burden of proof to the bears.
- Cowen said the setup matches how past bear markets ended and that he doesn’t think it has ever failed for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) has closed each month higher since its June low, and analyst Ben Cowen said the burden of proof has now shifted to the bears.
Cowen said Bitcoin’s four-year cycle low may have come in July, after it broke above its May high. Speaking in an interview with Real Vision, he called the July low “the earliest that we’ve seen.” He said lows in past cycles usually came in the fourth quarter
Bitcoin Recovers From June Low
Bitcoin has ended every month since October 2025. Its lowest month-end came on June 30, when it closed 48.85% below that level. Each month-end since has been higher.
Bitcoin finished July 45.13% below, August 31.21% below and September 27.05% below. The September close was its highest month-end since December. Bitcoin is now over 25% below its Oct. 1, 2025 level.
Bitcoin’s price traded over $85,000, up over 0.4% over the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin rose to ‘neutral’ zone from ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter dipped to ‘low’ from ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
Cowen Changes His Stance On Bitcoin
Cowen said the move matched how past cycles turned. “Any time bear markets have ended in the past, this is exactly how they’ve looked,” he said. He also said that he does not think that such a setup has ever failed for Bitcoin.
Cowen’s view now marks a sharp reversal from earlier this year. “I certainly didn’t think that Bitcoin was going to take out the May high, and at least not this year,” he said. “I find it better to just face it head-on than to pretend like you know that I wasn’t wrong,” he added.
Cowen said his mistake was assuming a chain of events would drag Bitcoin lower. He expected higher energy prices to push up yields, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates and lifting the dollar. Instead, Bitcoin rallied “despite a stronger dollar, right, and despite stronger yields,” the analyst said.
He also added how his biggest regret is that “I only bought Bitcoin for about five days.” He explained that he had planned to start buying from July 1, but only when his risk metric fell below 0.3, which happened for just a few days.
Risks Still In View
Amidst all, Cowen did not rule out a pullback. He said a stock market correction could still pull Bitcoin lower, but “I wouldn’t be calling for a new low at that point.” He noted that in several past midterm years, stock market corrections began around late September. Cowen said Bitcoin could fall without making a new low, even if it drops from the $85,000 to $90,000 range.
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