In the West Bengal elections 2026, BJP is leading on 193 seats, while TMC seems to be limited to 94. TMC’s hold has also weakened in Muslim dominated areas, indicating major changes in the politics of the state.
West Bengal Election 2026: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be taking a big lead in the trends of West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026. If these trends translate into results, it will be the first time that BJP will form the government in Bengal. According to the figures so far, BJP is leading on about 193 seats, while Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) is leading on only 94 seats. Even in Mamata Banerjee’s strongholds (Murshidabad, Malda, North Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas and Birbhum), TMC had captured 103 out of total 118 seats. But this time it has lead on only 57 seats. In such a situation, the question is bound to arise whether TMC’s core voters, i.e. the Muslims, have betrayed it.
BJP vote percentage low, but big jump in seats
If compared with the 2021 elections, BJP’s vote percentage has increased by only 7%. But despite this, the party seems to be getting a big advantage of about 116 seats. This shows that even small increases in vote share can lead to major changes in seats.
BJP’s breach in TMC’s stronghold
The biggest setback for Mamata Banerjee is that her party seems to be struggling to save even its traditional strongholds. Out of 119 seats where TMC had been winning continuously for the last 15 years, BJP is leading in about 65 seats.
1- Murshidabad: TMC’s hold weak
In 2021, out of 22 seats in Murshidabad, TMC had won 20 and BJP had won only 2 seats. But in 2026, TMC is leading on only 13 seats, while BJP is leading on 6 seats.
2- Malda: Changed electoral equation
Of the 12 seats in Malda district, in 2021, TMC won 8 and BJP won 4. This equation has changed in 2026. Now TMC is leading on 5 seats, while BJP is leading on 7 seats.
3- North Dinajpur: Close competition
Of the 9 seats in North Dinajpur, in 2021, TMC won 7 and BJP won 2. In 2026, TMC is leading on 5 seats, while BJP seems to be giving a strong challenge on 4 seats.
4- South 24 Parganas: Big rise of BJP
In 2021, out of 31 seats in South 24 Parganas, TMC had won 30 seats and BJP did not get a single seat. But in 2026, TMC is leading on 17 seats, while BJP is showing a big jump by leading on 11 seats.
5- North 24 Parganas: TMC’s falling hold
In 2021, out of 33 seats in North 24 Parganas, TMC had won 28 seats and BJP had won 5 seats. In 2026, TMC is leading on only 13 seats, while BJP is leading on 15 seats.
6- Birbhum: Strong entry of BJP
In 2021, out of 11 seats in Birbhum district, TMC had won 10 seats and BJP had won only 1 seat. But in 2026, TMC is ahead on 4 seats and BJP is ahead on 6 seats.
Changed trend in Muslim dominated areas
According to Election Commission data, the Muslim population in these six districts (Murshidabad, Malda, North Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas and Birbhum) ranges from 25% to 66%. On average, about 44% of the population in these areas is Muslim. In 2021, TMC had won 103 out of these 118 seats. But in 2026 he is ahead on only 57 seats. Whereas BJP, which had won only 14 seats in these districts in 2021, is now leading on 49 seats.
Has there been a change in the Muslim vote bank?
After these figures, the biggest question arising is whether there has been a change in the Muslim vote bank this time. Was Mamata Banerjee not supported by her traditional supporters, or has there been a major change in the voting pattern?
Big change in Bengal politics
The election trends of 2026 are showing that there can be a big change in the politics of West Bengal. If these trends translate into results, BJP may form the government for the first time in the state and TMC’s long-standing dominance may be broken.