The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023.
- Arthur Hayes said on Friday that the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, not crypto legislation, was what lifted Bitcoin this week.
- Grayscale’s head of research called the same hike a mid-cycle adjustment unlikely to move crypto markets.
- Bitcoin traded above $81,000 on Saturday, days after the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act.
As Bitcoin (BTC) traded above $81,000 on Saturday, Flop Labs CEO Arthur Hayes dismissed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) as “nonsense” and said crypto needed the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, not the bill.
“See, we didn’t need some nonsense piece of crypto regulation, Clarity Act, just a rate hike that puts more dollars in the hands of rich people to consume more financial assets,” Hayes wrote in a post on X on Friday.
Bitcoin’s price traded at about $81,322, edging up over 3%. The token slipped to the $ 75,000 range on Wednesday, after the bill stalled in the Senate the day before, and has steadily increased since then.
On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
The Rate Hike
The rate decision Hayes credited came a day after the Senate vote. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 on Wednesday to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%. It was the central bank’s first increase since July 2023.
“Inflation remains elevated,” the committee said. It added that the move would support a timelier return to its 2% goal.
Higher rates tend to weigh on assets that pay no income, because investors can earn more by holding cash instead. Hayes argued the reverse, saying the hike channels more money to wealthy holders of financial assets.
Grayscale Sees Limited Impact
However, not everyone reached the same conclusion. Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, wrote in a note published on Thursday that the hike was unlikely to drive major changes in crypto markets.
Pandl described the move as a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a cyclical policy shift. He pointed to March 1997, when the Federal Reserve delivered a similar one-off increase, and the Nasdaq (NDAQ) bull market continued. The one or two hikes expected in 2026 were unlikely to change capital allocation much, he said.
He did flag one direct effect, though. Stablecoin issuers such as Circle (CRCL) and Tether (USDT) earned higher revenues when cash rates rose, Pandl said. Higher rates on tokenized bonds and money market funds could also draw flows onchain.
Bill Failed Days Earlier
What made Hayes’ framing sharp was what the industry lost that week. The Senate did not agree to a motion to invoke cloture on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday, by a vote of 49-50. The motion needed 60 votes. The defeat was treated across the sector as a setback, with Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong calling the outcome a disappointment and saying the industry could not wait on Congress any longer.
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