Morgan Stanley modestly raised its Apple revenue estimates after the fall product launch, but left its earnings outlook largely unchanged as higher component costs and iPhone pricing pressure offset much of the benefit, according to TheFly.
- Morgan Stanley cut its Apple price target to $355 from $360 but maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating.
- BofA warned that agentic AI could weaken Apple’s control over discovery and transaction initiation even if iPhone sales remain intact.
- Apple’s latest launches include the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and refreshed Mac mini and Mac Studio models.
Morgan Stanley sees Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) latest product cycle supporting higher revenue, but not necessarily translating into much stronger earnings, according to TheFly.
The firm modestly raised its revenue estimates following Apple’s fall launches, citing stronger iPhone builds, upside from Mac and Services pricing. However, the firm says lower iPhone average selling prices and higher memory costs are expected to largely offset those gains, leaving its earnings outlook little changed.
The firm lowered its Apple price target to $355 from $360 while keeping an ‘Overweight’ rating. It described agentic AI as both “a potential emerging risk” and an opportunity for Apple.
AAPL stock traded marginally in the red in Thursday’s premarket at the time of this writing.
New Hardware Supports The Revenue View
Apple began shipping the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max on Sept. 18 after unveiling the devices earlier in the month. The new models run on the A20 Pro chip and include Apple’s latest Siri AI capabilities.
Apple also refreshed its Mac lineup ahead of the iPhone launch cycle, introducing a new Mac mini with the M6 and M5 Pro chips, and a Mac Studio powered by the M5 Max and M5 Ultra chips. Those desktops became available Sept. 22.
The company entered the launch period with momentum across those businesses. In its fiscal third (Q3) quarter, Apple said iPhone, Mac and Services each posted June-quarter revenue records, while total revenue rose 16% year over year to $109.4 billion.
Agentic AI Adds Another Variable
Earlier this week, BofA highlighted Agentic AI risk for Apple after Meta Platforms’ (META) Muse gained traction. According to TheFly, the firm said Apple could retain every handset sale while still losing discovery, referrals, and transaction initiation if consumers increasingly begin tasks through third-party AI agents.
Still, BofA maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on AAPL stock and said it continues to view Apple as “an eventual winner of AI at the edge.”
Apple is also pushing further into that interface itself. Siri AI began rolling out in September with personal context understanding, on-screen awareness, and the ability to take actions across apps.
What Retail Thinks About AAPL Stock
On Stocktwits, retail investor sentiment around AAPL stock remained in the ‘bearish’ territory despite Apple being the best-performing Mag 7 stock so far this year.
In 2026, Apple stock has risen nearly 23%. In comparison, the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG), which hold the stock, have risen over 35% and 11%, respectively, over the same period.
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