AAPL Stock Gains Overnight: Analyst Doubles iPhone Duo Revenue Forecast And Says Apple Is ‘Likely To Outperform’ Next Week

• Munster doubled his estimate for the Duo’s fiscal 2027 share of iPhone revenue from 5% to 10%.
• The Duo starts at $1,999, reaches $3,199 and costs about $58 monthly through Apple’s leasing program.
• Analyst Patrick Moorhead said Apple’s tech still “pulls up short” compared with Nvidia’s impact.

Shares of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) edged higher 0.5% overnight heading into Thursday as analysts assessed whether the $1,999 iPhone Duo could unlock a new revenue stream or pressure margins at the world’s most valuable consumer-tech company.

AAPL stock closed Wednesday’s regular session 0.3% lower at $315.34, extending its losing streak to three sessions and hitting a two-week low. 

Analyst Sees Winning Week For AAPL

Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster called the Duo Apple’s most important new product since AirPods launched in December 2016. “The Duo matters because this is the first time since AirPods in December, 2016 that Apple announced a new product people will really want,” Munster said on X, adding that the Vision Pro “missed the mark.”

“Putting the Apple Event together, $AAPL is likely going to outperform over the next week,” he said. The analyst was particularly impressed by the foldable’s thin design, nearly seamless screen and display that is 50% larger than the Pro Max’s. “The new foldable iPhone Duo is sick,” Munster said. “They’re going to sell more than I thought before seeing it.”

Before the event, Munster expected the Duo to generate about 5% of iPhone revenue in fiscal 2027. He has now doubled his estimate to 10%. If one-third of Pro Max buyers switch to the Duo, Munster estimates that the device could lift iPhone revenue by 5% and total Apple revenue by 2.5% in fiscal 2027. This excludes potential upgrades from customers who would otherwise purchase cheaper models.

Munster: Split iPhone Cycle Could Boost Sales

Munster also expects Apple’s split iPhone launch cycle to boost its March-quarter performance. Apple unveiled the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max and Duo on Wednesday but held back the standard iPhone 18, lower-priced 18e and Air 2, which are expected to arrive in the spring.

Munster said customers who need a new phone before then could be pushed toward the higher-priced Pro models, benefiting revenue and margins. “The Street is looking for 14% growth in March of 2027,” he said. “The split means that number will be closer to 20%.”

Apple raised the iPhone 18 Pro’s starting price by $100 to $1,199 and the Pro Max’s price to $1,299. Munster said the respective increases of about 9% and 8% were in line with expectations and should largely offset higher memory costs.

Can Apple Sell A $2,000 iPhone? 

The Duo is Apple’s first foldable smartphone and its largest iPhone redesign in nearly two decades. It unfolds into a 7.6-inch display, includes a 5.4-inch exterior screen and will support the Apple Pencil later this year. The 256-gigabyte model starts at $1,999, while the two-terabyte version costs $3,199. Preorders begin Oct. 16, with sales starting Oct. 23 in more than 70 markets.

Apple is also offering a leasing program that prices the base model at approximately $58 per month, compared with about $35 for the Pro Max. Munster believes the additional $23 per month could persuade a meaningful percentage of Pro Max customers to trade up. “The Pro and Pro Max are already expensive ($1k+), so I don’t think the stretch to $2k is much of a stretch,” he said.

Gerber Kawasaki CEO Ross Gerber also struck an upbeat but cautious tone. “Generally a good vibe in the HQ today watching the Apple event,” Gerber said. “$2k for a new foldable phone. I liked the new phone, but is ‘$2k the new $1k’?”

Wall Street Weighs iPhone Duo Upside 

Morningstar raised its fair value estimate for Apple to $290 from $285, implying an 8% downside to current levels, citing higher pricing assumptions after adding the Duo to its projections. The firm expects the Duo to remain a low-volume premium device but sees flat iPhone unit sales and double-digit pricing growth in fiscal 2027. 

It also welcomed new CEO John Ternus’ positioning of the iPhone as an AI-powered “intelligent personal hub.” Still, Morningstar expects higher memory costs to compress gross margin by more than 100 basis points in fiscal 2027 before supplies improve in 2028.

Jefferies retained its ‘Underperform’ rating and $263.66 target, implying 16% downside. It said the lower-priced 256-gigabyte Duo suggests Apple is prioritizing volume over margins, a strategy it said “makes sense,” but could weigh on profitability. Apple also held AirPods 5 and Apple Watch prices steady while raising prices across several iPhone models.

Patrick Moorhead, chief analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy, raised a broader concern about Apple’s tech impact. “I can’t help but compare Apple and NVIDIA when I’m watching an Apple keynote,” Moorhead said on X. “Apple technology helps create the best selfies. Inspires content creators. Nvidia technology helps cure diseases. Eliminates traffic fatalities.”

While Apple introduced new health features and positioned Siri and Apple Intelligence at the center of its devices, the latest hardware delivered no major new AI capabilities. “The more Apple leans into health it can move in that direction, but it pulls up short,” Moorhead said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About AAPL?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for AAPL flipped to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago amid a 467% jump in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “$AAPL wallstreet needs time to digest this ; ternus is a hardware guy and he’s already delivering with a sweet new product ; the future is bright for Apple! $400+ by end of next year”

Another user said, “$AAPL Sheeps will go crazy buying $2500 phone loaded with all options. This is going to $400 next qtr”

AAPL stock has risen 35% over the past year. 

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