Retail inflation figures have also come out after a few hours of wholesale inflation figures. The special thing is that retail inflation has been seen the least after 67 months i.e. August 2029. According to the government data released on Friday, India’s retail inflation in March decreased by 3.34 percent on an annual basis. In February, inflation mainly came to a seven-month low of 3.61 percent due to softening of food prices. Now the inflation of the country has come to the lower level of 67 months. However, the Reuters Pol, conducted between 40 economists from April 3 to 8, estimated that inflation would be around 3.60 percent in March. Retail inflation is not only within the 2-6 percent tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India, but is also seen less than 4 percent. This is the second consecutive month, but the ideal 4% inflation remained below the target.
RBI vote on inflation
Announcing the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee on this Wednesday, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that there has been a decline in inflation, which has received sports due to decrease in food prices. He said that inflation is expected to decrease further in FY 26, which will potentially provide relief to families struggling with cost pressure. However, the central bank warned that it is cautious about global uncertainties. On April 2, US President Donald Trump implemented high tariffs on several countries, implementing his “Reciperook Tariff” tariff scheme. India faced 26 percent import duty on all its goods. Although since then the President has stopped high rates for 90 days effective from April 9 on all countries except China, 10 per cent base rate remains and also 25 per cent auto tariff is also applicable.
Inflation can remain 4 percent
Malhotra had said that on the front of inflation, while the fall in food prices has given us relief, we are alert to potential risks from global uncertainty and meteorological disruption. Despite the global uncertainties-including the uncertainty inspired by American tariff growth-MPC has reduced its inflation forecast for FY 2025-26 to 4 per cent, which is slightly lower than the estimated 4.2 per cent in the February meeting. For FY 26, RBI hopes that inflation will be 3.6 per cent in the first quarter, 3.9 per cent in the second, 3.8 per cent in the third and 4.4 per cent in the last quarter.