The situation of El Nino has been rejected by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) before releasing the first forecast for the upcoming monsoon season. Every year in April, the first forecast is released by the IMD regarding the monsoon rains, but this time the first El Nino has been rejected. However, it is likely to benefit India’s southwest monsoon, as the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has rejected the situation of El Nino this year.
El Nino is produced due to the heating of the central tropical Pacific Ocean. Al Nino usually affects the monsoon rains. IMD Mahadinesh M Mahapatra said that we can dismiss the condition of Al Nino for the monsoon. They have denied it on the basis of climate forecast and international forecasts.
ENSO’s three phases
Al Nino ENSO is an ocean atmospheric phenomenon, which is considered one of the most important and frequent natural phenomena, which is worth changing global atmospheric circulation. ENSO has three phases. The first of these- Garm (El Nino), second- Neutral and third are cold (la neena). This year, the status of Neutral El Nino can be seen.
April forecast waiting
ENSO affects the Indian monsoon during June-September. About 70 percent of the country’s rainfall is recorded during these four months. This season is important for kharif sowing and economy. In 2023, there was a 6 percent decrease in rainfall in the monsoon season, when El Nino had troubled a lot, but last year 8 percent more rainfall was recorded. It has been said by the Meteorological Department that the forecast that is released in April will have to wait longer. After this, the forecast will be released from time to time.
Neutral phase will be in full summer
According to the April update issued by the American Weather Monitor, ENSO’s neutral phase will emerge and continue during the entire summer season in the Northern Hemisphere. NOAA said that during August and October 2025, there is more than 50 percent likely to remain in ENSO neutral conditions. Whereas La Nina is known to positively affect the southwest monsoon and bring normal or more rain.