Europe’s heatwave may affect India’s monsoon.
When a massive heatwave hits Europe, its news often makes headlines around the world. Some people ask whether Europe’s heatwave can affect India’s monsoon too? Yes, it can have an impact. But, it is not simple and straightforward. Many factors are necessary for this. It would not be appropriate to blame Europe’s heatwave alone. Let us understand whether Europe’s heatwave will really affect India’s monsoon? What is its complete science?
In simple words, Europe’s heatwave can have an impact on India’s monsoon. But that impact will be indirect, complex, and driven by multiple factors. India’s monsoon will not be spoiled only because of the scorching heat in Europe. There are many reasons for this. Extreme events like El-Nino, La-Nina can also be responsible for this. To understand this entire system, it is necessary to understand the entire science of weather. It should also be understood how this entire system works?
What is global climate system?
Our weather is created by the flow of energy and air between large parts of the Earth. The heat received from the Sun warms the sea and land. Heat makes the air rise. This changes the pressure and air system. These changes affect millions of kilometers away. Therefore, the changes taking place in Europe can be felt in other continents. Its impact is sure to be felt in other parts of the world as well. There will be an impact in India also.
Heat wave occurs when dry and hot air is formed. Photo: PTI
What is a heatwave?
A heatwave is a time when the temperature remains well above its normal range. This continues for several days or weeks. The soil dries up. Water in rivers and reservoirs reduces. The air becomes dry and hot. Heatwaves are often caused by high pressure systems, which press down the air and prevent clouds from forming. When clouds do not form, it is natural that there will be no rain.
How does monsoon work?
Monsoon is a seasonal wind system. The ground heats up rapidly in summer. When the air formed here rises, less pressure is created. Moist sea air comes and enters this low pressure area. The result is heavy rainfall. The direction and strength of the monsoon depends on average global pressure, ocean temperatures, and larger atmospheric patterns.
Heatwave in Europe. Photo: Getty Images
What relation does tele-connectivity have with weather?
The seasons of different parts of the world are interconnected. Scientists call this connection tele-connectivity. This means that large-scale changes in temperature or pressure in one place can affect the weather in other parts. For example, El Nino, La Nina factors in the Pacific can cause high pressure effects in the Atlantic or Europe.
Europe’s heatwave and air strip changes
When a long heatwave hits Europe, a stable high pressure area can form there. This high pressure can alter the jet stream. Jet streams are high-altitude bands of strong winds that move in midair. The rotation of the jet stream determines the direction of the weather. If the pattern of the jet stream changes over Europe, it could lead to modifications in the air system over Asia and the Indian Ocean. And any kind of seasonal change in the Indian Ocean is sure to impact India.
The temperature in Europe has gone above 40 degrees Celsius. Photo: Getty Images
sea surface temperature and monsoon
Sea temperature matters a lot for monsoon. Europe’s heatwave may alter the temperature of the Atlantic and surrounding seas to some extent. At the same time, changes in the temperature of the sea surface of the Atlantic can affect the air circulation of the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. Sea vapor increases or decreases due to changing ocean temperatures. Due to this, the moisture coming to India can be affected globally.
Pressure Chain and Monsoon Trend
The area of high pressure or heat that develops in Europe can cause ripples in the global pressure chain. These waves can affect the path of torrential winds necessary for the Asian monsoon. For example, if there is an increase in pressure in Western Asia and Europe, it may cause some changes in the wind direction of Southern Asia. These small changes can be seen in the onset, break, and division of monsoon.
There is already a possibility of less rainfall in India. Photo: PTI
Will India really be affected?
It is difficult to say whether the impact of Europe’s heatwave will directly weaken or strengthen the monsoon in India. Sometimes remote events only change some patterns of the monsoon. This effect can happen in three ways.
- One: Monsoon may start late or early, which is being seen in India. Monsoon has come late.
- Two: There may be disruptions in continuity, such as long droughts or unusual intervals. Scientists have already expressed this apprehension in the context of India.
- Three: Regional distribution of rainfall may change. There may be more rain in some parts and less in others.
What do the findings of scientific studies say?
Similar results emerge in various models and studies. Some studies have shown that unusual heat in the Euro-Atlantic region may affect the jet stream. This changed jet stream may later impact the Asian monsoon. But the strength of these effects is small to moderate and many other factors also come into play. Therefore, it would be scientifically incorrect to attribute Europe’s heatwave as the sole cause.
Many other big factors also affect monsoon.
- El Nino or La Nina in the Pacific.
- Sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea.
- Local soil moisture and ground heat.
- Sea-air interactions in the Arabian Sea.
The coordinated effect of these factors decides the final form of monsoon.
What can we expect in the future?
Climate change will lead to more heatwaves and unusual weather events in the future. This may also change the effects of tele connectivity. But, there is still a lot of uncertainty. How will Europe’s heatwave directly impact this monsoon? How much will it be? What will be the impact in India? It is difficult to say in one word. Because meteorology takes many things together and reaches a conclusion.
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