The Indian stock market benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday tracking weak global market cues,
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,500 level, a discount of nearly 100 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
Indian on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti.
On Thursday, the domestic equity market indices extended losses for the sixth consecutive session.
The declined 110.64 points to close at 77,580.31, while the Nifty 50 settled 26.35 points, or 0.11%, lower at 23,532.70.
Nifty 50 formed a small negative candle on the daily chart with a long upper and minor lower shadow.
“Technically, though this pattern looks like a doji type candle pattern, but not a classical one. Normally, such doji candle formations after a reasonable decline or near the key supports are considered as an impending reversal signals post confirmation. Nifty 50 is now placed just below the crucial 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at 23,540,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, previously, this MA has offered significant reversals and upside rally during 26th October and 4th June period. The Nifty slowing down the negative momentum below 200-day EMA on Thursday may be a good sign, but the market needs to show more evidence to consider for potential upside reversal.
“Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle, which is nearing the next important support of the intermediate ascending trend line around 23,300 levels. The underlying trend of the Nifty continues to be negative. Though there are some signs of oversold nature, still there is no confirmation of any crucial reversal pattern forming at the lows,” Shetti said.
He believes a decisive slide below 23,500 is expected to drag Nifty 50 down to 23,200 – 23,000 levels by next week. However, a sustainable move above 23,700 – 23,800 levels could open chances of sizable upside bounce in the market.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 continued its decline amidst range movement on November14 and closed the day lower by 26 points.
“On Thursday, Nifty closed near its 200-day EMA, forming a gravestone doji like pattern on the daily chart, signaling bearish sentiment. This suggests a ‘sell on rise’ approach as the index hovers in an oversold zone near a key EMA level. A bounce is likely, but it should be seen as an opportunity to sell. If Nifty 50 breaks below the 200-day EMA, selling pressure could intensify. The index has support at 23,450, with resistance expected at 23,650, framing the short-term trading range,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today highlighted that the Nifty 50 is trading 10.75% below its record high between 2 September 2024 and 24 September 2024, and in the latest session, it closed at its 200-day EMA.
“Notably, the current trend suggests a dip of another 3-5% within a few weeks. These trends have triggered a pullback, during which I urge traders to plan their activities carefully. In the next session, we can expect Nifty 50 to gain support between 23,330 and 23,150 and face resistance around 23,630 and 23,728,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index gained 91.20 points, or 0.18%, to close at 50,179.55 on Thursday, forming an Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern.
“For Bank Nifty traders, the 200 day SMA or 49,750 would be the key support zone. If it sustains above the same, then it could move up till 50,900 – 51,200. However, below 49,750 or 200 day SMA the sentiment could change. Below which it could slip till 49,300 – 49,000,” said Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
He suggests short-term traders to remain cautious and be very selective as there is a risk of getting trapped at lower levels.
