The board for assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh has been laid. Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has fielded Tej Pratap Yadav as his political ‘Bharat’ from Karhal seat. In terms of caste arithmetic and electoral track record so far, Karhal’s politics has been favorable for SP while challenging for the opposition. That is why Akhilesh had made Karhal his workplace in 2022 and now expressed confidence in his nephew. In such a situation, BJP has given ticket to Anujesh Pratap Yadav to break into the fort of SP. In this way, BJP has used the 22 year old formula to make lotus bloom in Karhal.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had decided to contest the assembly elections for the first time in the year 2022, for which he had chosen Karhal assembly seat of Mainpuri. He was elected MLA from Karhal, but resigned from the assembly membership after becoming MP from Kannauj in 2024. Karhal area is considered a strong stronghold of SP.
Since the formation of Samajwadi Party, Karhal seat has been under the sole rule of SP. SP has been winning this seat continuously since 1993, but had lost the election only once. That year was 2002. By defeating SP, BJP had blossomed in the stronghold of Mulayam Singh Yadav. Now once again BJP wants to repeat the same charisma in the by-elections.
Political equation of Karhal seat
Karhal assembly seat of Mainpuri district came into political existence after delimitation in the year 1956. Due to it being a Yadav dominated seat, most of the MLAs have been elected from the Yadav community. Even before the formation of SP and before that, only leaders close to Mulayam Singh have been winning from Karhal seat. In 1957, wrestler Nathu Singh Yadav of Praja Socialist Party became the first MLA. After that, Nathu Singh won on the ticket of Swatantra Party in 1962, 1967 and 1969, Bharatiya Kranti Dal in 1974 and Janata Party in 1977, but in 1980, Shivmangal Singh of Congress won.
Due to Karhal’s political equation, Baburam Yadav’s dominance continued from 1985 to 1996. Baburam Yadav had won three elections on Janata Dal ticket, but when Mulayam Singh Yadav formed SP, Baburam also joined him. As a SP candidate in 1993 and 1996, Baburam had won from Karhal seat. After this, SP had lost the assembly elections only in 2002 and since then till now SP’s dominance has continued on Karhal seat.
BJP breached SP’s fort in 2002
Due to the political dominance of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Yadav votes, SP’s absolute rule continued on Karhal seat. BSP chief Mayyati served as the Chief Minister of UP four times, but BSP’s elephant in Karhal could not stop the speed of SP’s cycle. BJP used the same strategy to penetrate Karhal, which had become a strong bastion of SP. The matter is about the 2002 assembly elections. While Anil Yadav was contesting on SP ticket, BJP made the election battle of Karhal a Yadav versus Yadav by giving ticket to Sobran Singh Yadav.
Sobran Singh Yadav had left SP and joined BJP, he was aware of both the weakness and strength of SP on Karhal seat. From Mulayam Singh Yadav to Shivpal Yadav, everyone worked day and night in Karhal to make Anil Yadav victorious, but the major inclination of Yadav votes was with BJP’s Sobran Yadav. In a close fight in Karhal, BJP’s Sobran Yadav got 50031 votes while SP candidate Anil Yadav got 49106 votes. In this way, after a tough struggle, BJP was successful in winning the Karhal seat by just 925 votes.
The defeat of Karhal seat was a big political blow not only for SP but also for Mulayam Singh Yadav. That is why Mulayam Singh Yadav created a political structure to include Sobran Yadav in SP and was successful in 2004. Sobran Yadav continued winning the assembly elections here till 2017 and in 2022 he left the Karhal seat for Akhilesh Yadav. Akhilesh Yadav became MLA and has now fielded Tej Pratap in the by-election to be held after he leaves the seat.
BJP used 22 year old formula
In the by-election being held on Karhal seat, SP has fielded former MP Tej Pratap Yadav, who is the grandson of Mulayam Singh Yadav and son-in-law of Lalu Prasad Yadav. In such a situation, BJP has fielded Anujesh Pratap Yadav, son-in-law of Mulayam Singh Yadav and brother-in-law of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav, while Avneesh Shakya is the candidate from BSP. In this way, the election contest on Karhal seat is between Saifai family i.e. Mulayam family. On the same lines as BJP had defeated SP’s Yadav candidate by fielding its Yadav candidate in 2002, on the same lines it has played a bet on BJP’s Anujesh Yadav against SP’s Tej Pratap Yadav.
Tej Pratap Yadav has been an MP from Mainpuri and has taken charge of the election management of Dimple Yadav. BJP has fielded Anujesh Pratap Yadav, son-in-law of the Saifai family, who is the husband of Sandhya Yadav, sister of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav. Sandhya has been the Mainupri District Panchayat President from 2015 to 2020 and Anujesh Yadav has been the District Panchayat member from Firozabad. By fielding Anujesh, BJP is trying to steal Yadav votes. This time the contest in Karhal will be between Saifai family and relatives. If there is a split in Yadav votes then political tension may increase for SP. That is why Dharmendra Yadav is now gaining ground with Anujesh.
Caste equation of Karhal seat
There are about 3.25 lakh voters in Karhal seat, out of which about 1.25 lakh are Yadav voters. After this, Dalit community has 40 thousand votes and Shakya community has 38 thousand votes. Pal and Thakur communities have 30 thousand voters each and Muslim voters are 20 thousand. The voters of Brahmin-Lodh-Vaishya community are around 15-15 thousand. In Karhal, after Yadav, Dalit and Shakya voters are important while Baghel and Thakur voters are important. Shakya and Kshatriya voters have been considered the core voters of BJP in Karhal seat.
BJP had made a bet to gain hold on Baghel voters by fielding SP Baghel in the year 2022. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav got 148197 votes while BJP candidate Baghel got 80692 votes. Akhilesh defeated Baghel by 67 thousand 504 votes. BSP candidate Kuldeep Narayan got 15 thousand 701 votes.
To break Akhilesh’s stronghold in the by-election, BJP not only fielded Yadav candidate but also placed its bet on the son-in-law of Mulayam family. In this way, the fight between SP vs BJP on Karhal seat has become quite interesting.
SP wants to maintain its dominance in Karhal with the help of the equation of Yadav, Shakya and Muslim votes. The way the BSP chief has fielded a candidate from the Shakya community, the intention is to register victory with the help of the Dalit-Shakya equation. BJP is trying to win the trust of Yadav voters along with Lodhi and Baghel while keeping the vote bank of its upper caste Thakur-Brahmin community intact. In such a situation, it remains to be seen whether SP is able to maintain its victory through Tej Pratap or whether BJP will be successful in making the lotus bloom like in 2002?
