There has been 43 percent less rainfall in the initial months of monsoon.
Storms and rains have started in many cities of Uttar Pradesh, but there has been 43 percent less rainfall in the initial months of monsoon. Due to which the threat to Kharif crops has increased. Due to lack of rain, sowing has decreased and its effect can be seen on production. Monsoon is not just a season for the Indian economy and common people, but is the economic lifeline of India. When the monsoon is weak, it has a long-term impact on our lives. Its impact is not only limited to the fields, but it also affects your pocket, plate and the pace of progress of the country. There is a possibility that this time the monsoon will be weak.
Come, let us understand how the entire mathematics of the country can get spoiled due to weak monsoon, from agriculture to inflation, know why this is important for India?
Monsoon decides the fate of India
Monsoon in India lasts from June to September. Meanwhile, about 70 to 75 percent of the country’s annual rainfall reaches the ground. Even today, about 50 percent of India’s agriculture is completely dependent on rain. If the monsoon is weak, the rural economy collapses, which directly impacts the country’s GDP.
If there is no rain then farming is in trouble, negative impact on production
The first and most severe attack of weak monsoon is on agriculture. In India, main crops like paddy, pulses and oilseeds are grown depending on monsoon. There are many meanings of whether it is late or not.
- Delay in sowing: Due to less rainfall, farmers are unable to sow crops or it gets delayed.
- Fall in yield: Due to lack of water, standing crops start drying up, due to which production reduces.
- Irrigation cost: In the absence of rain, farmers have to resort to diesel pumps or tube wells, due to which the cost of farming increases and yet the production is not what it would be due to good monsoon.
Weak monsoon makes pulses expensive. Photo: Pexels
Inflation breaks the back, pulses and bread go away from the plate
When farming is weak, the supply of grains in the market decreases. The demand remains the same, due to which the prices start touching the sky. Due to the difference in demand and supply, the entire structure starts deteriorating. Its impact is felt in many ways.
- Food Inflation: Rising prices of grains, pulses and vegetables increase food inflation.
- Crisis of pulses: India is the largest producer and consumer of pulses in the world. Due to worsening monsoon, pulses like tur and urad become expensive.
- Animal Feed: Due to less fodder, the prices of milk and dairy products also start increasing.
Decline in rural demand and impact on business
Still a large population of India lives in villages. When farmers have a good harvest, they get money, which they spend on motorcycles, mobiles, tractors and clothes. If the monsoon is bad, the demand from rural areas reduces. Its direct impact is on FMCG, automobile and other sectors. Due to crop failure, farmers get trapped in debt trap, which also increases the pressure on the banking sector.
Grain production decreases when rainfall decreases. Photo: Pexels
Water crisis and electricity production are also affected.
Monsoon not only provides water to the fields, but also fills the reservoirs and dams of the country. Less rainfall means that the groundwater level will go down in summer and there will be water shortage in cities. A large part of the electricity in India comes from hydropower projects. Due to low water level, electricity production reduces, which increases power cuts in industries and households.
El Nino is responsible for weak monsoon
Often, geographical events like El Nino are behind the weakening of monsoon. This is a condition of warming of water in the Pacific Ocean, which changes the direction of winds and reduces rainfall in India. Due to climate change, the monsoon pattern has also become uncertain.
Monsoon is the foundation of India’s social and economic stability. Photo: PTI
See the impact of less rain in the words of statistics
Whenever there is talk of strong or weak monsoon, people have different reactions. But to understand how important this is for our lives and country, we have to look at the figures. We will also know where the weak monsoon gives us dents.
- GDP Contribution: Agriculture contributes about 15-18 percent to the Indian economy, but it employs more than 50 percent of the country’s population.
- Food grains target: The government aims to produce about 330-340 million tonnes of food grains every year. A 10 percent deficiency in monsoon can reduce this target to 5-7 percent.
- Mathematics of inflation: The weight of food items in the consumer price index is about 46 percent. If the monsoon is bad, the food inflation rate can go beyond 10 percent.
- Irrigation scope: Only 52 percent of India’s total sown area is irrigated, the remaining 48 percent is completely dependent on rain. Meaning, if there is no rain, 48 percent of these crops are certain to be destroyed.
Good rains mean cheap food and low inflation. Photo: PTI
Why is monsoon important for India?
Monsoon is the foundation of India’s social and economic stability. Good rains mean cheap food and low inflation. Prosperity and increasing demand in villages. Reduction in burden on government treasury. Because the government does not have to import grains from outside. Good harvest shows strength in the stock market. Meaning, its effect is seen from village to city.
In simple words and in brief, weakening of monsoon is not just a natural phenomenon but an economic disaster. It affects everyone’s pocket in some way or the other, from rich to poor. Governments are trying to reduce this risk by promoting new irrigation technologies and drought-resistant crops, but even today India’s economic mathematics depends largely on the mercy of clouds.
Also read: How did India leave the world behind in recycling of ships?
