South Africa created a big upset by defeating India in the Women’s T20 World Cup. With this defeat, India’s path to the semi-finals has become difficult. Now the team will have to win against Australia at any cost. The equations in Group ‘A’ have become exciting.
Manchester: A big upset was seen in the 18th match of the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2026. The Indian team, which was invincible till now in the tournament, tasted defeat for the first time by South Africa. India had scored 158/7 in this high-voltage match held in Manchester. In response, South Africa changed the entire equation of Group ‘A’ by registering a spectacular victory by 6 wickets. After this defeat, the Indian team’s path to the semi-finals has become difficult. Now the team will have to defeat strong Australia at any cost in its last league match.
At present, the teams of Pakistan, Netherlands and Ireland are officially out of the race for the semi-finals. So let us see what are the exciting scenarios for the other teams to reach the semi-finals according to the current points table:
Complete mathematics of Group ‘A’
1. India
Remaining matches: Against Bangladesh and Australia.
How will India reach the semi-finals:
First equation: India won both its next matches. Also, either Australia or South Africa loses one of its matches.
Second equation: India beats Bangladesh, but loses to Australia (total 6 points). In such a situation, South Africa also loses one of its matches (they will also have 6 points). Then the team with better net run rate (NRR) will go ahead.
Third equation: India should win both its matches (Bangladesh and Australia). On the other hand, Australia should defeat Pakistan and South Africa should also win both its matches. In this situation, the three teams India, Australia and South Africa will have 8 points each. Then the top-2 teams will be selected on the basis of net run rate. At present India’s NRR is better than South Africa.
2. Australia
Remaining matches: Against Pakistan and India.
How will Australia reach the semi-finals:
First equation: Winning both their next matches.
Second equation: Defeat India in the match to be held on Sunday.
Even if there is a tie between the three teams on 8 points, Australia is in a safe position due to its excellent net run rate (+4.391).
3. South Africa
Remaining matches: Against Netherlands and Bangladesh.
How will South Africa reach the semi-finals:
First equation: Win both their matches and hope Australia beats India.
Second equation: India should lose one of their next matches and end up on 6 points. Then South Africa will have to win its matches by a big margin and have a better NRR than India.
If there is a tie on 8 points, South Africa may suffer a loss as its NRR (-0.546) is currently the lowest.
4. Bangladesh
Remaining matches: Against India and South Africa.
How will Bangladesh reach the semi-finals:
First equation: Winning both of your remaining matches. If this happens, the result of the India-Australia match will not make any difference and Bangladesh will qualify directly.
Second equation: Beat India and lose to South Africa. Then expect South Africa to lose to the Netherlands as well. Then Bangladesh, South Africa and India (if India beats Australia) will have 6 points each. The NRR will then decide who will be the second team from Group ‘A’ along with Australia.
Condition of Group ‘B’
5. England
Remaining matches: Against West Indies and New Zealand.
How will England reach the semi-finals?
First equation: Winning at least one of the remaining two matches.
Second equation: Even if England loses both the matches, and Sri Lanka and New Zealand win their remaining matches, then England, Sri Lanka and New Zealand will have 6 points each. Then England can qualify on the basis of NRR.
6. West Indies
Remaining matches: Against England and Ireland.
How will West Indies reach the semi-finals:
First equation: Winning one of the remaining two matches. If both lose then the fate will depend on NRR.
Second equation: A tie of three teams on 6 points would be the worst-case scenario for West Indies. If both Sri Lanka and New Zealand win their respective matches, then Windies, Sri Lanka and New Zealand will have 6 points each and NRR will have to face a tough test.
7. New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Scotland
Remaining matches: New Zealand vs Scotland, Sri Lanka vs Ireland, Sri Lanka vs Scotland, and England vs New Zealand.
How will these three teams reach the semi-finals:
These three teams will have to win their remaining two matches at any cost. Also, they have to pray that the team that loses the match between England and West Indies, also loses its second match.
Then these three teams will be able to reach a maximum of 6 points and the second semi-finalist of Group ‘B’ will be decided on the basis of NRR.
At present, Sri Lanka’s NRR is the worst among these three (-1.913).
If the losing team in the England-West Indies match wins its second match, then all three teams, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Scotland, will be out of the tournament.