Has the rebellion in the opposition brought the NDA to the threshold of passing the delimitation bill? Will the TMC and Shiv Sena split in UBT prove to be the biggest power shift in Indian politics? Will DMK’s possible support change the entire arithmetic of power and leave a gap of just 6 votes? Will there be a big decision on women’s reservation, delimitation and ‘One Nation, One Election’ in the monsoon session?
New Delhi: In the last two weeks, Indian politics has taken an unexpected turn, which hardly anyone could have imagined a month ago. The latest developments have created the possibility of completely changing the equations of power and opposition. There is a deep suspense floating in the political corridors of Delhi. The opposition which was united in the month of April and blocking the path of the government, today its legs are seen being uprooted. The question is whether there is going to be any big game in the monsoon session that will change the Constitution of the country? Will the growing rebellion within the opposition give the NDA the strength it has been longing for?
That defeat in April…and now suddenly the tables are turning!
Remember the month of April, when the ‘Constitutional Amendment Bill related to Delimitation’, which was a part of the women’s reservation package, was defeated in the Lok Sabha. The united strength of the opposition had spoiled the plans of the government and this bill was stopped by a margin of 54 votes. But no defeat in politics is permanent. If sources are to be believed, now preparations are on to introduce this bill again, and this time the results may be shocking. Behind this whole game, there is a huge political turmoil going on behind the scenes in Bengal and Maharashtra.
Storm of rebellion rose from Bengal: Mamata Banerjee got the biggest blow
After the defeat of Trinamool Congress (TMC) on May 4, Didi’s fort seems to be collapsing. The schism that started in the West Bengal Assembly has now reached the Parliament. Out of 28 Lok Sabha MPs of Trinamool Congress, 20 MPs have broken ties with the party by forming a big faction. These rebels have merged their group with ‘Nationalist Citizen Party of India’ (NCPI). This is the same party which had a very bad start in Tripura, but now on the strength of these 20 MPs, it is going to directly reach the Parliament and become a part of the NDA.
‘Matoshree’ crisis in Maharashtra: Will there be panic in Uddhav camp again?
After Bengal, Maharashtra is next. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) is currently going through its deepest crisis. According to inside sources, six of Thackeray’s nine Lok Sabha MPs can leave the party any time. The suspense is about the fact that these six MPs are going to further strengthen the NDA clan by joining Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena.
Mathematics of magical numbers: Will the opposition’s maze collapse?
Now let’s talk about the real game that is going to happen inside the Parliament. To pass a constitutional amendment bill, the government needs two-thirds majority. According to the effective strength of Lok Sabha, this figure comes to 360.
- Current strength of NDA (including NCPI): 318 MPs
- Opposition strength: 184 MPs
- Non-Alliance MPs: 38 MPs
On paper, the government still needs 42 more MPs. But the real catch lies in the rule of “members present and voting”. If 12 MPs remain absent like in the budget session, the majority figure will come down to 352. In such a situation, the government will need only 54 additional votes.
Possible equation of Parliament (Lok Sabha):
- Total magic votes required: 54 votes
- TMC rebel (NCPI): 20 votes
- Shiv Sena (UBT) rebel: 06 votes
- DMK (likely support): 22 votes
- Now there is only shortage: 06 votes!
Stalin’s suspense and those last 6 ‘mysterious’ votes!
The biggest turning point of this entire drama could be Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin. After rift with Congress, DMK is now out of the opposition ‘INDIA’ alliance. There is news that the Central Government is talking with DMK behind the scenes. If DMK’s demands are accepted, 22 of its MPs will come to the government’s side. After this the government will remain just 6 votes away from majority. Where will these last six votes come from? Uttar Pradesh Minister Om Prakash Rajbhar has increased the suspense further by pointing towards Samajwadi Party (SP). However, it will not be easy to make a dent in SP before next year’s UP elections. Therefore, the eyes of BJP strategists are also fixed on some other small regional parties of ‘INDIA’ alliance.
‘Operation Majority’ ready in Rajya Sabha also
The chessboard has been laid not only in the Lok Sabha but also in the Rajya Sabha for two-thirds (164 votes). NDA has 150 MPs in the 245-member Rajya Sabha. If 8 DMK MPs join us here also, this number will become 158. After this, by-elections on the seats vacated by the resignation of three Trinamool MPs and with the help of some independents and small parties, the government will easily touch the magical figure.
Big bang in monsoon session: Is ‘one country, one election’ coming?
If this entire equation falls into place, the upcoming monsoon session could become the most historic session in Indian parliamentary history. Not only will the government get the Women’s Reservation and Delimitation Bill passed again, but there is also a strong discussion in the political circles that the “One Country, One Election” bill, which will change the way of elections in the country forever, can also come on the table in this session. Now it remains to be seen how the opposition saves itself from this great siege!