Even before the announcement of Lok Sabha elections, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has started fielding his commanders. SP on Tuesday announced the names of candidates for 16 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Akhilesh has once again fielded several candidates including his two sitting MPs who lost in the 2019 elections, expressing confidence in them. Not only this, SP has also taken care of the cast equation of seats in its first list, due to which it has played the biggest bet on the OBC community. In such a situation, the question arises that what are the political equations of the 16 seats on which SP has declared its candidates and how successful will they be in competing with BJP?
There are total 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. Talks are going on between the Indian alliance regarding seat sharing. However, Akhilesh has decided the outline of the alliance by offering 11 seats to Congress and 7 seats to RLD. In a way, Akhilesh has also drawn a political line that his party will contest elections on 62 seats. Samajwadi Party announced candidates for 16 out of these 62 seats yesterday. Those to whom the party has given tickets in the first list include names like Dimple Yadav, Dharmendra Yadav, Devesh Shakya, Annu Tandon, Ravidas Mehrotra, Rajaram Pal, Shafiqur Rahman Burke.
Sambhal: Will Burke retain his seat?
Samajwadi Party has once again placed its bet on Shafiqur Rahman Burke, the sitting MP from Sambhal Lok Sabha seat. BJP was successful in winning this Muslim-dominated seat in 2014 in the Modi wave, but in 2019, due to SP-BSP alliance, BJP could not maintain its victory. On the basis of Dalit-Muslim-Yadav equation, Shafiqur Rahman Burke from SP was successful in winning by about two and a half lakh votes. Earlier in 2014, he had lost the elections to BJP by just five thousand votes. BJP could win Sambhal seat for the first time only in 2014.
In Sambhal Lok Sabha seat, Yadav, Muslim and Dalit voters play a decisive role and are considered the guarantee of victory. There are more than 40 percent Muslim voters in Sambhal seat, but till now in the history, there have been Muslim MPs only twice and Shafiqur Rahman Burke has won both the times. He has won once from BSP and second time from SP, before this he has been an MP from Yadav community. This time BSP is contesting alone, due to which a situation like 2014 elections is being created. There is a different kind of atmosphere regarding Ram temple. In such a situation, how will Shafiqur Rahman Burke compete with BJP and will he be able to retain his seat?
Firozabad: Will Akshay repeat the charisma again?
From Firozabad Lok Sabha seat, SP has fielded former MP Akshay Yadav, who is the son of Ram Gopal Yadav. In 2014, Akshay became MP for the first time by winning from this seat, but lost the election in 2019 due to Shivpal Yadav contesting the election. However, SP also had an alliance with BSP-RLD. In Firozabad seat, voters of Yadav and Muslim community play a very decisive role, which is considered the basis of victory or defeat. Shivpal Yadav is now with SP, but BSP will contest alone. Chandrasen Jadaun is MP from BJP. There are five assembly seats under Firozabad seat, out of which SP holds three seats and BJP holds two seats. In such a situation, will Akshay Yadav be able to repeat the charisma of 2014 in front of BSP and BJP?
Mainpuri: What will Dimple be able to maintain?
SP has fielded Dimple Yadav from Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat. After the death of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Dimple Yadav won the by-election from Mainpuri seat in 2022, but will she be able to maintain her victory in 2024 also. Dimple Yadav got the benefit of sympathy arising from the demise of Mulayam Singh in the by-election and was able to register victory by getting 64 percent votes. Mainpuri seat is considered traditional and strong for SP. Yadav, Shakya, Dalit and Thakur voters play an important role in this seat, which is considered a guarantee of victory. BJP has been playing bets on the Shakya community, while SP is maintaining its dominance by including Yadav voters and other castes, but due to the way BJP has made inroads in the OBC vote bank, it remains to be seen whether Dipal Yadav will succeed his father-in-law Mulayam Singh. Will she be able to take the legacy forward in 2024?
Lakhimpur Kheri: SP played Kurmi bet
SP has made Utkarsh Verma its candidate from Lakhimpur Kheri Lok Sabha seat. This is considered a Kurmi and Brahmin dominated seat, but at present Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Mishra Teni is the MP. BJP has been registering consecutive victories in the last two Lok Sabha elections and is hopeful of winning for the third time also, whereas at one time this was considered to be the stronghold of SP. Veteran SP leader Ravi Verma has been winning from this seat for a long time, in 2019 his daughter Purvi Verma had contested the elections. Both Ravi and Purvi Verma have joined Congress. Keeping in view the local equations, SP has fielded a candidate from Kurmi community, but if it comes from Eastern Congress or any other party, then it will be a challenge for SP to win the seat.
Farrukhabad: Will Shakya bring victory to SP?
SP has made Dr. Naval Kishore Shakya its candidate from Farrukhabad Lok Sabha seat. BJP’s Mukesh Rajput has been winning the last two Lok Sabha elections continuously, is close to Kalyan Singh and comes from Lodh community. Veteran Congress leader Salman Khurshid has been contesting elections on this seat and wanted to contest once again. Yadav, Thakur, Brahmin, Muslim, OBC and Dalit voters play an important role in this seat. BJP has been registering victory through OBC and upper caste voters, but this time SP has also played a bet on OBC, if BSP and Congress play their cards against BJP’s political base, then it will not be easy for SP to win this seat. will be?
Akbarpur: Will Rajaram become king again?
SP has made Rajaram Pal its candidate from Akbarpur Lok Sabha seat. BJP is in possession of this seat since 2014 and currently Devendra Singh is the MP. This seat is considered to be of Kanpur Dehat. Rajaram Pal has been MP from BSP and Congress in 2009, but in 2019, he stood third by getting 108341 votes. It is considered a Kurmi dominated seat. SP is dreaming of victory by securing OBC and Dalit votes through Rajaram Pal, but because of the way BJP is retaining Kurmi, Thakur and Brahmin votes, is it not easy for SP to win this seat?
Banda: Kurmi vs Kya Kurmi fight
On Banda Lok Sabha seat, SP has fielded Shivshankar Patel, who was once in BJP and was associated with the Ram Mandir movement. BJP is in possession of this seat since 2014. In 2019, BJP’s RK Patel was elected MP from this seat, who came from SP. Brahmin and Patel communities have dominated the Banda Lok Sabha seat, but Dalit and extremely backward voters also play an important role. In Banda seat, most of the political parties have been betting on Kurmi and Brahmin. SP has fielded Shiv Shankar Patel under this strategy, before that SP had registered victory through Kurmi equation. Dadua is dominating this seat, due to which his brother has also won from this seat.
Faizabad: Dalit stake on general seat
SP has made Awadhesh Prasad its candidate for Faizabad Lok Sabha seat. Despite being a general seat, Akhilesh Yadav has given ticket to Awadhesh, who belongs to Pasi caste of Dalit community. This seat is one of the strong seats of BJP and is continuously registering victories in the elections. BJP is already busy in creating political atmosphere through Ram temple in Ayodhya. By naming Ayodhya Airport after Valmiki, it worked to increase the penetration among Dalits, whereas by fielding a Dalit candidate on the general seat, SP has also demonstrated its strategy. SP hopes to benefit from Awadhesh Prasad’s experience, but aims to maintain its dominance not only through Ram Mandir but also through Nishad and upper caste votes.
Basti: SP will be able to hold on to Kurmis
SP has given ticket to Ram Prasad Chaudhary from Basti Lok Sabha seat. Choudhary has been a strong leader of BSP and has been MLA from Kaptanganj five times. Comes from Kurmi community and is a veteran leader. Atul Chaudhary, son of Ram Prasad Chaudhary, is currently the MLA from Kaptanganj. Basti Lok Sabha seat is held by BJP and Harish Dwivedi is MP for the second time. SP has never been able to win this seat whereas BSP has captured it twice. Kurmi, Brahmin and Dalit voters play a very important role in Basti seat. SP has tried to create a Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi equation by fielding the Kurmi community on this seat, but will Ramprasad Chaudhary be able to keep all these three castes together?
Lucknow: SP will be able to penetrate the fort of BJP
SP has fielded Ravivaas Mehrotra, who is the MLA from Lucknow Central region, as its candidate for the Lucknow Lok Sabha seat. BJP has dominated the Lucknow seat for a long time, from where former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Rajnath Singh have been elected in the last two elections. On seats dominated by Brahmins, Vaishyas, Kayasthas and Muslims, SP has placed its bet on Ravidas Mehrotra, who comes from the Khatri community, because he has been active in the politics of the capital for a long time. In such a situation, will SP be able to penetrate this strong fort of BJP?
Ambedarnagar: Will SP Kurmi card be successful?
On Ambedkar Nagar Lok Sabha seat, SP has fielded Lalji Verma, who is currently an MLA and has joined SP from BSP. Ambedkar Nagar seat has been one of the strong seats of BSP, from where Ritesh Pandey is the MP, but his father Rakesh Pandey is an MLA from SP. If we look at the political equations of this seat, it is considered to be dominated by Dalits, Muslims, Kurmi and Brahmins. Lalji Verma has influence among the Kurmi as well as Dalit community, but the picture will be clear only after whom BSP will bet on. BJP is trying to capture this seat in every situation, because in the 2022 assembly elections, all the five MLAs are from SP. But, Lok Sabha elections are completely different. Due to its proximity to Ayodhya, BJP is eyeing this seat, due to which it is not easy for SP?
Badaun: Will Dharmendra find any of his strength?
SP has made Dharmendra Yadav its candidate from Badaun Lok Sabha seat, from where he has been MP twice. In 2019, this seat was won by Swami Prasad Maurya’s daughter Sanghamitra Maurya on BJP ticket. If we look at the political equation of Badaun seat, Yadav, Muslim, Dalit and Maurya votes are quite decisive. SP wants to win this seat again on the basis of Yadav-Muslim, for which it has placed a bet on Dharmendra Yadav. BJP wants to maintain its supremacy at any cost through Maurya, Dalit and upper caste votes, but if BSP plays the Muslim card, this path will not be easy for SP. In the 2022 elections, BJP has been successful in winning only four out of five seats in Badaun and SP has got one seat. In such a situation, can it be a challenging match for Dharmendra Yadav?
Unnao: Will Annu Tandon win again?
SP has made Annu Tandon its candidate from Unnao Lok Sabha seat. Annu Tandon was elected MP from this seat on Congress ticket in 2009, but BJP’s fire brand leader Sakshi Maharaj has been MP for the last two elections. In 2019, BJP had won this seat by about 4 lakh votes while Annu Tandon was at third position by getting only 85634 votes. Before the assembly elections, she left Congress and joined SP and the party has made her its candidate from Unnao seat. It is believed that she wants to register her victory through the Yadav and Muslim equation with the votes of the general category, but this is not easy in front of the political base of BJP.
Gorakhpur: SP played Nishad card
SP has made Kajal Nishad its candidate for Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat. It is one of the strong Lok Sabha seats of BJP, from where Bhojpuri actress Ravi Kishan is currently the MP. In such a situation, SP has fielded Kajal Nishad, who is an actress. Kajal Nishad has contested the assembly elections in 2017 from Congress and in 2022 from SP, but she did not win. SP had won the Gorakhpur by-election in 2018 by Praveen Nishad and giving preference to the same equation, has given a chance to Kajal Nishad from here, but since it is the home constituency of CM Yogi, this victory is not going to be easy for SP. Brahmin, Thakur, Nishad, Dalit and Yadav voters are decisive in Gorakhpur seat.
Etah: BJP bets on Shakya leader
Samajwadi Party has made Devesh Shakya its candidate from Etah Lok Sabha seat. Rajveer Singh, son of veteran Bharatiya Janata Party leader Kalyan Singh, is the MP on this seat. This seat is considered one of the strong seats of BJP. If we look at the political equation here, OBC, Thakur and Dalit votes are considered decisive. Here, BJP has been making its political debut by betting on Lodh community, while this time Samajwadi Party has fielded Devesh Shakya, whose background is from BSP and BJP. Devesh Shakya’s brother has been a minister in the BSP government and an MLA from BJP. This time SP is betting on him and is looking for victory with the help of Shakya, Muslim and Yadav equation, but since a strong candidate like Rajveer Singh is in front, the matter will not be easy.
Dharauhara: SP played Thakur card
Samajwadi Party has made Anand Bhadauria its candidate from Dharauhara seat. Bhadauria comes from Thakur caste. At present Rekha Verma is the MP from Bharatiya Janata Party. Bharatiya Janata Party has been making its electoral success in Dharauhara seat with the help of Brahmin and OBC community. Upper caste voters, especially Brahmin voters, are considered important on this seat. Apart from these, Kurmi and Muslim votes are also very important on the seat. Akhilesh Yadav is trying to win this seat with the help of Muslim, Yadav and Thakur votes, but this path will not be so easy.
