Cathie Wood Says Starship’s First Orbital Flight Could Make SpaceX’s $1.75 Trillion IPO Seem Like A ‘Deep Value Opportunity’ In Hindsight

• Flight 14 will attempt Starship’s first orbital flight and operational Starlink V3 deployment.
• The mission will carry 26 satellites, adding 26 Tbps of Starlink network capacity.
• SpaceX targets rapid Starship reusability in 2027, with a tower-catch attempt planned after Flight 14.

ARK Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood sees a path for Starship to turn SpaceX’s (SPCX) $1.75 trillion valuation from an aggressive bet into a “deep value opportunity,” beginning with the rocket’s first upcoming orbital flight and operational Starlink V3 deployment.

SPCX stock fell 3% on Tuesday, logging its second straight loss. 

Cathie Wood Sees $10 Trillion Starship Opportunity

Wood said on X that each future Starship mission could generate $1 billion in Starlink revenue. Applying the figure to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s goal of 10,000 annual flights by 2030 would imply $10 trillion in potential yearly revenue. “If SpaceX achieves this goal, its $1.75 trillion IPO will be considered, in hindsight, a deep value opportunity,” Wood said.

Her calculation follows a June analysis from ARK strategy director Sam Korus. He estimated that Starlink generated about $19 million in annual connectivity revenue for every terabit per second (Tbps) of network capacity in 2025. A future Starship carrying about 61 Tbps could therefore support close to $1 billion in revenue. 

“It’s not rocket science,” Korus said, while acknowledging that revenue per Tbps will likely decline as SpaceX adds capacity.

Wood’s $10 trillion estimate rests on two assumptions: SpaceX hits 10,000 Starship flights annually by 2030, or about 27 per day, and each launch generates $1 billion in revenue. 

Starship’s First Revenue Mission Nears Launch 

SpaceX is targeting Sept.22 for Flight 14, pending regulatory approval. The mission will become Starship’s first flight into Earth orbit and its first deployment of operational Starlink V3 satellites.

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen said earlier this month that Flight 14 would be Starship’s first revenue-generating mission, calling it a “huge milestone.” He called the rocket “core to the rest of our business.” Starship is expected to enter an orbit about 275 kilometers above Earth, deploy 26 V3 satellites, and complete six orbits before conducting a deorbit burn and splashing down in the Pacific nearly 10 hours after launch.

Each satellite can add about 1 Tbps of capacity. Flight 14 would therefore deliver 26 Tbps, about 10 times the capacity of one Falcon 9 mission deploying V2 Mini satellites.

One Starship Could Match 23 Falcon 9 Launches 

Tesla and SpaceX investor Sawyer Merritt said on X that Flight 14’s payload could increase the entire Starlink constellation’s capacity by 3%. He estimated that matching this gain would require about 10 Falcon 9 missions carrying a combined 277 V2 satellites.

Future Starships are expected to carry as many as 60 V3 satellites, adding 61 Tbps per mission. Merritt said that would equal the capacity deployed by 23 Falcon 9 missions carrying about 640 V2 satellites. Musk said on X that Starlink V3 eventually could provide more than 100 times the bandwidth of the company’s existing constellation of 11,000 satellites.

SpaceX Targets Full Starship Reusability In 2027 

SpaceX must still demonstrate that Starship can reach orbit, deploy its payload, return safely, and fly again quickly. Flight 14 will test orbital insertion, an in-space Raptor-engine restart and controlled reentry. SpaceX also modified the Super Heavy booster after ice clogged three center engines during Flight 13, ending its boostback maneuver early.

Musk said on Monday that Flight 14 would be the final mission before SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage at its launch tower. He believes the company is “extremely likely” to achieve full reusability with rapid reflight in 2027.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SpaceX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SpaceX slipped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ levels a week ago amid ‘low’ message volume.

One user said, “$SPCX thank you for the dip! I believe we will see $150 again by this weekend. They have to take it down before rate hike tomorrow and Starship 14 launch on Friday!”

Another user said, “$SPCX The drop is ok, it’s the weak hands leaving.  Remember, Falcon had its questionable days and now it’s the most used renewable rocket in the world. When Starship proves itself on Friday, this security doubles.  It’s as simple as that!”

SPCX stock has declined 11% so far this year. 

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