The picture of power in Rajasthan has become clear after the counting of votes on December 3, but this time there is a close contest between Congress and BJP. The claims in the exit polls of different agencies regarding the Rajasthan Assembly elections on Thursday are completely different. In some exit polls, BJP is ahead and according to some surveys, there is a possibility of Congress retaining power. If we look at the data of Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, Congress has succeeded in changing the trend after thirty years whereas BJP does not seem to be successful in maintaining the trend of change of power every five years.
Voting was held on 199 seats out of total 200 assembly seats in Rajasthan, hence 100 seats are required for majority. According to Axis My India exit poll, Congress seems to be returning and BJP is away from majority. BJP can get 80 to 100 seats while Congress can get 86 to 106 seats. According to Today’s Chanakya, Congress is expected to get 102 seats and BJP 89 seats. Both the parties are estimated to have 12 seats plus-minus.
Read all the analysis on the elections of five states here
If the exit poll figures are true, Congress can form the government again in Rajasthan. This will happen after 30 years in the political history of Rajasthan, when the government of a ruling party will be repeated. From 1993 to 2018, six elections have been held, in which BJP was successful thrice and Congress was successful in forming the government thrice. In this way, the tradition of change of power after every 5 years has been going on for three decades, but according to the exit poll, this time CM Gehlot is seen changing this tradition.
Government changes in every election
- 1993: BJP managed to return to power by winning 95 seats while Congress got 76 seats.
- 1998: Congress won 153 seats and BJP won 33 seats. In this way Congress returned to power with an overwhelming majority.
- 2003: BJP won 120 seats while Congress won 56 seats. In this way, BJP won power by defeating Congress.
- 2008: Congress won 96 seats while BJP won 78 seats. Congress returned to power, but formed the government with others.
- 2013: BJP won 163 seats while Congress got 21 seats. BJP again captured power after five years.
- 2018: Congress won 100 seats while BJP got 73 seats. In this way Congress once again returned to power.
What customs are changing in 2023?
This time there is a close contest between Congress and BJP in Rajasthan Assembly elections, but the tradition of change of power seems to be changing. According to the exit polls of both Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, Congress seems to be getting the lead in Rajasthan. All the efforts of BJP have failed in the elections. If something like this happens in the election results of Rajasthan then the tradition will change after 30 years. Voting in the 2023 elections is almost equal compared to the 2018 elections.
It is believed that that is why all the exit polls are predicting a close contest between Congress and BJP. A deep analysis of exit poll data shows that there is a triangular contest for about 55 to 60 seats. This is where others, including rebels from both BJP and Congress, can spoil the game. It has been seen in the last elections that all the rebels of Congress who contested were successful in winning the elections whereas the rebels of BJP themselves also lost and due to them the BJP candidate also had to face defeat. If a similar trend is seen in the 2023 elections, then Congress will be able to garner majority on its own.
Why couldn’t BJP continue the trend?
If BJP is not able to maintain the trend of change of power in Rajasthan in five years, then it will be a big shock for it. This time BJP had not declared anyone as the chief ministerial face while Congress had handed over the election command to Gehlot. Gehlot was repeatedly saying that we ourselves are contesting elections on all 200 seats. At the same time, BJP should keep suspense on the CM face. Apart from this, the party was able to activate Vasundhara Raje only at the last moment, which Congress was successful in taking advantage of.
BJP was also a victim of factionalism among its leaders. For five years, BJP leaders struggled with each other and could not create a political atmosphere against CM Gehlot and the Congress government. This was the reason that in this election there was no resentment against Gehlot anywhere, nor were opposition slogans heard like in the previous elections, like in the last election the slogans of ‘No hatred for Modi, no good for Vasundhara Raje’ were raised quite loudly. Were picked up from.
At the same time, Gehlot government and Congress have made every possible effort to turn the political atmosphere in their favor by announcing populist promises. The amount of health related ‘Mukhyamantri Chiranjeevi Swasthya Bima Yojana’ was increased from Rs 25 lakh to Rs 50 lakh. Women were given Rs 10,000 every year and a gas cylinder was guaranteed for Rs 400, due to which women voters were inclined towards Congress. Apart from this, the way Congress had created its social engineering, BJP could not find a solution to it. Congress leader Minister Pratap Singh Khachariyawas said that BJP does not talk about farmers, youth employment, whereas we have directly benefited the public. We are confident that this time the customs of Rajasthan are going to change.
