India’s 2026 monsoon season is shaping up to be one of the most challenging in recent years. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall, with the southwest monsoon likely to remain at 92% of the long-period average.
Climate experts believe a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is the main reason behind this concern. El Niño weakens the moisture-carrying monsoon winds that India depends on every year between June and September.
States such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra are expected to face the biggest rainfall shortages. Regions including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Jabalpur, Rewa and Chambal may witness prolonged dry spells during the peak monsoon months of August and September.
For millions of farmers who rely entirely on seasonal rains for kharif crops, lower rainfall could mean crop damage, water shortages and financial stress.